FOMC – Market Message
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Entries by Bob Loukas
Losing Faith
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Midweek Market Update Report
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A New Cycle Approaches – Gold
Gold is down another $25 this morning, while Silver is taking the heaviest losses of the Cycle. As Silver led the Cycle and has for the most part avoided any significant decline, this must now be the final decline into the 2nd DCL. Traders should focus on the opportunity at hand and ignore the severity of the decline. The Financial Tap members know that this remains a normal and expected decline; they’ve been following the last few Cycles play out to expectations. In the past weekend premium member report I wrote:
“Until the current Daily Cycle completes, the immediate trend remains to the downside. We are 3-5 sessions from a low in the current 2nd Daily Cycle. This event is within our framework of expectations; Daily Cycles have ended every 24-28 days for many decades. When the next Daily Cycle (the 3rd) gets underway, I believe that the bear case for Gold will diminish considerably, and we’ll see a rush into the metals that will drive price significantly higher. “
Market Message
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Another Step Closer
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Don’t Fight the Trend
When it comes to the Daily Cycle, especially 1st Daily Cycles from a series of up trending Investor Cycles, there is only so much downside one should expect. That’s essentially what we have in the equity markets, a long history (4 years) of 1st Daily Cycles finding the necessary bid to power out of Cycle Lows.
In this particular case, there is now little doubt that a new Cycle is underway. The Cycle extended out to 46 trading days and was technically a much deeper correction than one would expect. The oscillators have turned higher, the MACD should cross within 3-5 sessions, and the S&P is back above its 10dma. A little more strength and the trend-line will be broken too.
Midweek Market Update
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Distant Rumbling
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Buy on Cannons
Is the Syrian rhetoric really to blame for this more than expected weakness, I highly doubt it. In fact I can barely keep a straight face thinking how ludicrous the idea that potentially striking Syria is bringing the equity markets down. The simple fact is that this is weaker than expected action for a 1st Cycle Low decline and there appears to be some significant distribution occurring in this market now. I firmly believe that the more dominant weekly and monthly Cycles are topping out here, but one should not expect the equity markets to simply roll-over. We’re still seeing a massive influx of retail and margin debt capital which will continue to sustain these markets for the immediate future.
For time being though sentiment has reached fairly extreme (negative) levels and the Cycle has stretched to 46 Days (Average is 38 to 42 days). Based on the recovery this morning and now a confirmed Daily Swing Low we have to assume that we just left behind a slightly stretched (46 days) Cycle making this just Day 1 of a new Cycle.
