Game Changing Action

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It appears as if the worm has finally turned for the equity markets. The S&P 500 recorded its largest weekly decline since August, and the broader risk markets took a beating. The price of Crude fell under $35 a barrel and high yield bonds took an absolute drubbing. Friday’s big decline in equities was on extremely high volume – the highest in 6 weeks – and the volatility index (VIX) jumped 26% in its biggest one-day percentage increase of the year.

This past week’s performance notwithstanding, we have been through enough face-ripping reversals in equities to know that, in the end, one move may prove meaningless to the broader trend. Volatility and reversals have been a characteristic of the 2015 market, so we need to consider the current action in that context. But if I can be so bold, I’d like to depart from my normal reliance on evidence to suggest that I have a “sense” that this time might be different for equities.

Commodities and the emerging markets are scaring the heck out of traders, and there is rampant fear that deflation will sweep through the markets. Compounding the problem at a time when the market seems vulnerable, the FED is universally expected to raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. This is why the FED’s looming FOMC rate decision has really become the variable in the short term. The market is clearly saying that it cannot support a FED rate hike.

In the short term, the S&P is well within the timing band for a Half Cycle Low so we should expect a bounce next week regardless of longer term direction. But in my opinion, the bounce won’t come to much – the damage is already done. The market has revealed its intentions.

Beyond my anecdotal narrative that the market is suddenly in trouble, there is bearish evidence in the Cycles. The S&P failed to make a higher high last week, which was the first clue that it might be topping. And on Friday, when it dropped below the last Daily Cycle Low (DCL), the S&P confirmed a failed, Left Translated Daily Cycle (DC) with a day 10 Cycle high. In addition, the 10dma has crossed below the 20dma. It’s clear that equities have almost certainly topped for this Investor Cycle (IC), and future breaks are likely to come to the downside.

 

12-12 equities daily

 

A fair question would be how it’s possible for me to be relatively bullish one week, and then outright bearish the next. The answer is simple – I call the markets as they appear, and I am not married to my calls. My analysis offers a working framework that incorporates all that I know about the markets at the time. My goal is not to pick a market turn well in advance, nor am I interested in being able to declare that I was right about one call or another. I’m focused on making money, and that means using all available information and controlling risk. Being stubborn is how traders end up taking 10%, 20% or even 30% losses on a position, and that is not how I trade. I might miss a good trade, but I will never be caught over-extended in a losing position because I have clung to a public call about market direction.

I form my opinions by relying on what the Cycles are telling me at any given time, and then combine it with a view of the price action. I’ve said many times that price action is what matters most, and we always need to make sure our framework aligns with the most recent price action, be it bullish or bearish. Whenever price changes character or breaks below a key Cycle pivot, the market is signaling that an important development has occurred, and we ignore it at our risk.

In addition to the clear breach of key Cycle points this week, other alarming developments surfaced, highlighted by the strong reversal in equities and the new short-term declining trend. The high yield corporate debt market appears to be in serious trouble, and now rests at a multi-year low. The junk bond market is typically one of the first places capital flees once signs of trouble emerge, so the decline in the market is a real tell for equities.

Junk bonds have been flashing a warning signal about capital market conditions for some time. But a divergence the size of what we are seeing today becomes especially significant once the market begins to break in the direction of the divergence.

When markets fueled on liquidity and speculative leverage are rising rapidly, traders seem unconcerned with valuation, because booming markets are all about confidence and greed. But once the confidence is broken, liquidity suddenly dries up and ridiculous asset valuations quickly seem to make no sense to anyone. That has not occurred – yet – in the current equity markets, but junk bonds do illustrate how quickly an overheated market can lose its support.

 

12-12 junk bonds

At any given time, there are various under-performing sectors that can be compared to the broader market. But no sector other than the Dow Transportation Index holds any real weight when identifying divergences between a sector and the general market. And in terms of the Transports, because Crude and energy prices are at seven-year lows, we would expect the Transports to be enjoying extremely favorable margins and higher equity prices. But that’s not what’s happening.

Before July’s big S&P decline into an ICL, the DOW Transportation index diverged rapidly lower from the broader market.   We see the same divergence today, this time between the Dow Transportation Index and the DOW Industrial Index. This is only secondary evidence, but is clearly supportive of a market that is in a downtrend.

 

12-12 Transports versus Industrials

 

When the market speaks, we need to listen. Markets often turn on a dime and this one is certainly no exception – what has changed from a few weeks back are the trend and the evidence from Cycles. The failure of the S&P to form a higher high on the Daily chart, and a very clear, powerful decline that left a failed DC tell us that a trend change has occurred and an intermediate decline is underway.

The market has traveled quickly from a potentially bullish setup to a possible Investor Cycle Top. Although it can always change, the trend is now distinctly downward, and there are still many weeks before we should expect an ICL. The big variable on every time frame is the FOMC meeting next week. But regardless of what the FED does, my bias is now firmly in the bearish camp. I believe the market could be in for a very sharp decline in the coming weeks/months, especially if the FED decides to raise rates at next week’s meeting.

 

12-12 Equities weekly

 

Possible Trading Strategy

Longer term holders:

Once we see an oversold relief rally occur, back towards the 10 day moving average, you could look for a short trade that could be good to a weekly Cycle Low around the February time-frame.

Position Traders:

A scalp trade (long) is on offer here now, being the market is oversold and due a bounce in the 2nd half of this Daily Cycle.  But the right play now is to allow the market to rebound, and then look for a Short position at around days 27-30 of the current Daily Cycle, probably in the 2,060-2,070 range on the S&P.

 

The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s, and Natural Gas Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to two different portfolios and trade alerts. Both portfolios trade on varying time-frames (from days, weeks, to months), there is a portfolio to suit all member preferences.

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Possible Game Changer

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Market Update – Dec 9th

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Efficient Markets

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Midweek Market Update – Dec 3rd

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Final Holiday Sales Coming Soon

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Patience Is Required.

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Bullish, But Do Don’t Fall In Love – Free Report

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Sample Premium Member Report published on Nov 14th, 2015.

 

 

Gold Cycle

Cycle Counts

 

Cycle Count Observation

Probable Outlook

Cycle Clarity

 Trend
Daily Day 30 Range 24-28 Days – 3rd Daily Cycle Bearish

Green

 Failed
Investor Week 17 Range 22-26 Weeks Bearish    Green Failed
4Yr Month 40 Range 48-52 Months Bearish

Green

 Failed

Gold moved relentlessly lower again this week, ignoring normal Daily Cycle timing. The move has given life to my frequent warnings about the persistent, unyielding declines that bear markets often bring. Bear markets are notorious for elevating investors’ hopes through sharp moves higher that quickly give way to crushing declines. And as we’ve witnessed with Gold, the declines can be prolonged to the point that they wear down even the most ardent bulls.

Surprisingly, there is still an endless stream of pundits and investors declaring that Gold’s bear is over. Too many traders seem more preoccupied with catching a possible turn higher than with acknowledging the reality of the past 4 years and understanding Gold’s potential downside. Bullish bias helps to explain why, despite Gold’s sitting at a new 5-year low, sentiment is still not at bearish extremes. In addition, from the latest commitment of traders report (COT), it’s clear that speculators are still offloading bullish Long positions as they begin to accumulate bearish Short positions.

When combined with an Investor Cycle weekly count that easily supports another Daily Cycle, the above two indicators – Sentiment and COT – make me very cautious regarding Gold.

The daily chart shows just how ugly the current action has been, and it speaks volumes about the underlying bearish tone of the precious metals complex. On the surface, the current decline is severe enough to look like the final move into an ICL. But Gold’s longer term Investor Cycle suggests that another DC is needed to complete the IC.

In the immediate term, Gold is clearly oversold and should move higher in a new Daily Cycle rally. But based upon the sector’s clear weakness, it would not be a surprise if the rally lasted only a day. Remember, the next DC should be the last of the current Investor Cycle, and if it’s true to form, should end with twenty sessions of panicked selling.

 

11-14 gold daily

Platinum is already sharply lower, and produced a failed Investor Cycle a few weeks ago. Silver also shown a failed Investor Cycle in Week 5. And now, at week 16, it has fallen back beneath the lows of the last two Investor Cycles and sits just $0.30 away from the week 5 intra-day low. Silver looks extremely vulnerable at present, but is still far from the oversold levels that is can attain at IC Lows. Silver could easily see 4-5 weeks lower as Gold finds its ICL in December.

 

11-14 Silver Weekly

Although Gold’s week was negative overall, the bleeding was fairly contained. And after four consecutive weeks lower, it’s due for a Daily Cycle rally that should push it temporarily higher. The rally could be fast and convincing enough to cause steadfast bulls to again proclaim that a double bottom has occurred.

But because the timing and evidence support another significant move lower, I believe that any rally will be very short lived. The new Daily Cycle rally should be just enough to clear oversold technical levels and allow the Bollinger Bands to expand to accommodate the next big decline.

For those asking whether the current decline could be a short, 16 week ICL, I just don’t see it. A perfect double bottom forming with the July low would wrap a nice bow around the bear market, but the evidence doesn’t support it. It is not impossible by any stretch, but it is very unlikely.

 

11-14 gold weekly

 

Investor Cycle Trading Strategy

This week, we have virtually the same story as last week: it’s too late in Gold’s Daily Cycle to add a Short position. An opportunity to Short the IC could still come, but the current move has pushed price so far into oversold territory that we would be foolish to chase it. Before I consider a Short trade, I’ll need to see a $40 +/- rally.

 

Daily Cycle Trader Strategy

Nimble traders could buy a Swing Low (when one arrives), since the Daily Cycle is well past due for a rally. For anyone who takes such a trade, setting tight stops and actively managing/increasing them will be important.

I will personally consider a trade on either a Swing Low or a lower opening and intraday reversal. If I do take a position, it will be with the goal of making a quick profit and getting out by the end of the week.

In addition, I’m still waiting for a strong 2-3 day rally to put on a Short position. This should be a high percentage trade because of the high likelihood of a big decline into December.

 

Portfolio Positions Summary

Open Positions – Investor Portfolio –

None.

Open Positions – Daily Cycle Trader Portfolio –

None.

 

 

 

Equities (S&P500)

Cycle Counts

 

Cycle Count Observation

Probable Outlook

 Cycle Clarity Trend
Daily Day 35 Range 36-42 Days – 2nd Daily Cycle.

 Bearish

Green

 Up
Investor Week 12 Range 20-24 Weeks Bullish
 Green Failed
4Yr Month 77 Range 50-56 Months- 8th Investor Cycle.

Bearish

 Green Up

I’m not going to dive too deeply into analysis of the equity markets this week since they have been tracking well to our short term expectations. In the longer term, though, there is less clarity. There is significant evidence to support both the bear and the bull cases.

The equity markets are once again at a cross-roads, with bulls seeing a one year consolidation that will give way to the next bull leg higher, and bears believing that the current counter-trend rally is now exhausted and that the real bear market is on deck. Both scenarios have creditable evidence, so arguing either side can easily become an exercise in pumping bias.

It’s no secret that I favor the bullish outlook, and I’ve have positioned my capital as such. But the bears have good evidence too, so I won’t waste your time working to convince you that the bullish case is the best option. That said, I do want to make sure I’ve clearly laid out my thinking. My primary evidence is simply the dominant bullish trend, which has now been interrupted by a rare market correction. But since the correction didn’t break the bull market trend, history tells us that this should be a buying opportunity. We do, however, need to be wary of a potential trap.

At this point, given the long term uncertainty in equities, it’s most important to be flexible in our viewpoint. As a general rule, we should never be afraid to drop (or to switch) a view on an asset. While it’s OK to be wrong on an outlook, it is not OK to stay wrong out of stubbornness.

Until Wednesday, the decline on the daily chart was orderly and controlled. But on Thursday, once the 20 day moving average was lost, a small bout of panic selling ensued, with equities seeing two consecutive 1% declines. And even though the decline was deeper than expected, from a timing standpoint, the it has perfectly matched the outlook I’ve presented for two weeks. Since the S&P never showed a clear Half Cycle Low, I believe that we will see only one decline, and that into the next DCL. It’s unclear whether the current move down will become the DCL, but with price having retraced 38.2% of the Daily Cycle rally, there is a strong chance that equities will open higher next week.

 

11-14 equities daily

I said I wouldn’t spend time promoting the bullish case this week, but I found one piece of evidence with an excellent track record that I wanted to share. The ICI (mutual fund industry) released its latest equity mutual fund flow figures, and for the latest week, domestic flows took a big hit. Investors pulled more than $12 billion out of US mutual funds, the largest net withdrawal since August, 2011.

The chart below shows that total net flows are hovering below $100 billion, a level seen only in late 2008/early 2009 and late 2011. If we look further, these large equity outflows have corresponded with market corrections of greater than 10%. So the current level of outflow is associated with the bottom of a move, and not the start of a large decline.

 

11-14 Equities mutual fund flowsSource: Sentimentrader.com

Newton’s 3rd Law tells us that for every action, there is an equal but opposite reaction…and that relationship is certainly found in financial markets. After rallying for over 6 weeks and 200 points, equities can’t be expected to continue higher forever. On the charts, the current decline looks scary, but it’s only a 38.2% consolidation of the move since the last DCL. To look at a one week decline in isolation without acknowledging the preceding six weeks is cherry-picking, which can lead to a warped view of events. Netting it out, because the current decline has come during the timing band for a DCL, it is a very normal development.

We could conceivably see another week lower, since Daily Cycle timing would support the move. But I believe the market is almost finished back-filling, and that a new rally is likely to begin this week.

The rally out of the coming DCL will finally provide some clarity on the bull market’s intentions. If the market has already topped and the current action is just part of a long and wide topping pattern, we will see the coming Daily Cycle rally top out quickly and give way to a rapid decent.

But if the dominant bull market trend resumes, as I think it will, the traditionally strong holiday period should lift the market significantly higher. If the bull is to remain alive, it will need the FED’s help, first by first keeping rates unchanged and then by extending support for zero interest rates.

Flexibility will be the watchword for equities. We don’t need to always be right, but we must avoid being wrong for a significant amount of time.

 

11-14 equities weekly

 

Investor Cycle Trading Strategy

I took a first small Long position and hope to add to it. I’d been waiting patiently for the right setup, and when it arrived Friday, I took it. Once we see a turn higher and a clear DCL, I will consider both adding to the position and increasing stops to the DCL point. If this trade is successful, we should hold it for around 6 weeks.

 

Daily Cycle Trader Strategy

I took a trade before the Swing because the markets became significantly oversold in the short term. I’m looking to hold this position for 15-18 trading days.

 

Portfolio Positions Summary

Open Position – Investor Portfolio –

25% Position in SSO (2x Long S&P ETF).  Bought at $62.32  Stop at $55.05

Open Position – Daily Cycle Trader –

Two positions in SSO (2x Long S&P ETF) Bought at $61.92  Stop at $57.35

 

CRUDE OIL

Cycle Counts

 

Cycle Count Observation

Probable Outlook

Cycle Clarity

 Trend
Daily Day 14
 Range 36-42 Days (2nd Daily Cycle)  Neutral Green Up
Investor Week 12
 Range 20-24 Weeks

Neutral

 Green Down
4 Year Month 9 Range 48-52

Bearish

Green

 Down

This week, Crude oil clearly and unequivocally declared its longer term intentions. It topped on just day five of the current Daily Cycle and had an early DC failure on day 12, so the path forward is decisively lower. The bad news for Crude is that there should be at least twenty more trading days before the next DCL, and that’s plenty of time to suffer some serious selling.

But considering that Crude has seen eight straight declining sessions, additional immediate downside is probably too much. So I expect Crude to rally back toward the 10 day moving average before rolling over. But since the short term trend has clearly turned and now aligns with the long term trend, it’s extremely unlikely that Crude can recover from here. And since both trends are in agreement this late in the Cycle, it’s very difficult to see how Crude can avoid further significant declines.

 

11-14 crude daily

Crude has been in a cyclical decline for only 16 months, while a bear market can last for three to four years. So while it’s impossible to know how long the current bear market will last, to expect it to end with the coming ICL is far too optimistic and ignores reality. So long as Crude oil supplies are bursting at the seam, it will be impossible to have any recovery in price.

 

11-14 Crude Inventories

I originally expected that the bear market declining trend-line would be breached during the current DC, but the resumption of the bear market caused it to again serve as significant resistance. Going forward, the trend line should now contain Crude’s price.

Since this is only Week 11 of the Investor Cycle, Crude could be looking at significant declines during the next couple of months. Unless the Dollar weakens and tops well before expected, I suspect that Crude may make deeper, multi-year lows in the near future. Whenever a bear market is rooted in poor fundamentals, as is the case with Crude, we should expect an overshoot to the downside.

 

11-14 crude weekly

 

Investor Portfolio Trading Strategy

I expect a short rally next week, and if Crude complies, I will use is as an opportunity to take a Short position. The Investor Cycle timing is just too young to ignore the downside potential here.

 

Daily Cycle Trader Strategy

We were stopped out of the Long trade, so there’s nothing to do but move on. Now I’m looking to reverse the trade and go Short given the clear Cycle evidence. But after eight straight sessions lower, Crude is too oversold for us to get in Short now. We need to be patient and let price come to us.

 

Portfolio Positions Summary

Open Positions – Investor Cycle Portfolio –

None.

Open Positions – Daily Cycle Trader Portfolio –

None.

 

$US DOLLAR

Cycle Counts

Cycle Count Observation

Probable Outlook

Cycle Clarity

 Trend
Daily Day 22
 Range 18-22 Days – 3rd Daily Cycle     Bearish
 Green Up
Investor Week 12
 Range 18-22 Weeks  Caution

Green

 Failed
3Yr Month 17 Range 36-42 – 6th Investor Cycle. Bullish Green Up

There is little of note to add to the Dollar’s outlook this week – I can only reiterate that it continues to behave bullishly. I do expect short term weakness, however. With a Swing High in place, and only three days into what looks to be a Daily Cycle decline, the Dollar should fall further next week and break below the 10dma and the rising trend-line.

These moves appear to be part of a standard decline into Daily Cycle Low. A consolidation after 19 days of rising prices is normal behavior, and in this case is very likely a precursor to at least one more rally during the current IC. There is a real bid under the Dollar that is driven by the expectation of a rate hike during the December FED Open Market Committee meeting. I believe, however, that the FED will not hike rates, causing the Dollar to form an IC Top and roll over.

 

11-14 Dollar Daily

 

Investor Cycle Trading Strategy

I see no trades at present.

 

Daily Cycle Trader Strategy

There are no Trades to be taken at present

 

Portfolio Positions Summary

Investor Cycle Portfolio –

None.

Daily Cycle Trader Portfolio –

None.

 

 

U.S Bonds

Cycle Counts

Cycle Count Observation

Probable Outlook

Cycle Clarity

 Trend
Daily Day 5 Range 20-26 Days – (DC#4)  Bullish    Green Up
Investor Week 21 Range 22-26 Weeks

 Bearish

Green

 Failed
3Yr Month 22 Range 50-56 Months-

Bullish

Green

 Up

The response (higher) has been somewhat muted this past week, when we expected a decent counter-trend rally. We’ve been following the inverse relationship of the bond market to equities for some time, so I believe it’s rather telling that bonds could not manage a substantial move higher as equities were aggressively sold off.

But at least we finally see a delayed and extended Bond Cycle turn higher and show us a new Daily Cycle. The weak and steady incline these past few days looks to be establishing a bear flag, which will fall sharply once the equity markets turn higher.

 

11-14 Bonds Daily

 

Investor Cycle Trading Strategy

No trades, but a potential short is coming at the top of this Daily Cycle.  In effect, this is a very similar trade with going long Equities.

 

Daily Cycle Trader Strategy

Could short bonds at the top of this Daily Cycle.

 

Portfolio Positions Summary

Investor Portfolio –

None.

Daily Cycle Trader Portfolio –

None.

 

Natural Gas Gas

Cycle Counts

Cycle Count Observation

Probable Outlook

Cycle Clarity

 Trend
Daily Day 11 Range 20-26 Days – (1st or 5th DC) Bullish Green Down
Investor Week 2 or 31 Range 22-26 Weeks Bearish

Green

 Down
3Yr Month 42 Range 48-52 (Months) Bearish Green Down

It is pretty clear that natural gas has already formed a new Daily Cycle, and is already up to Day 11. The weak action to date made it difficult to make that call, but with Friday’s move, it is difficult to ignore. The problem is that we just don’t know if this is a new Investor Cycle, as you would expect.  We’re finding that although oversold for many months, natural gas is acting horribly and the overall sector fundamentals remain extremely weak.

 

11-14 natty gas daily

 

Investor Cycle Trader Strategy

Back to the drawing board and waiting for a clear and sustainable trend to develop.

 

Daily Cycle Trader Strategy

No trades.

 

Portfolio Positions Summary

Investor Portfolio –

None.

Daily Cycle Trader Portfolio –

None.

Midweek Market Update – Nov 19th.

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The Final Gold Chapter

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This is the final chapter of this intermediate gold Cycle, and it’s likely to get ugly.  If you’ve followed the blog these past few months, you would have been prepared for most of this move as it unfolded in real-time.  The first post back on October 1st was  Gold Cycle Running Out of Steam  and was then followed up (Nov 1st) with Don’t Trust Gold Here.  In both cases, I highlighted how the Weekly Cycle had topped and how similarly past Cycles behaved .  It was why I argued that this Cycle appeared to be no different to the preceding failed, bear market Cycles since 2011.  This is where gold finds itself today, standing on a ledge before a significant fall.  For the patient (and protected) bulls, it may well become the final chapter of this great bear market.

Gold moved relentlessly lower again last week, ignoring normal Daily Cycle timing. The move has given life to my frequent warnings about the persistent, unyielding declines that bear markets often bring. Bear markets are notorious for elevating investors’ hopes through sharp moves higher that quickly give way to crushing declines. And as we’ve witnessed with Gold, the declines can be prolonged to the point that they wear down even the most ardent bulls.

Surprisingly, there is still an endless stream of pundits and investors declaring that Gold’s bear is over. Too many traders seem more preoccupied with catching a possible turn higher than with acknowledging the reality of the past 4 years and understanding Gold’s potential downside. Bullish bias helps to explain why, despite Gold’s sitting at a new 5-year low, sentiment is still not at bearish extremes. In addition, from the latest commitment of traders report (COT), it’s clear that speculators are still offloading bullish Long positions as they begin to accumulate bearish Short positions.

When combined with an Investor Cycle weekly count that easily supports another Daily Cycle, the above two indicators – Sentiment and COT – make me very cautious regarding Gold.

The daily chart shows just how ugly the current action has been, and it speaks volumes about the underlying bearish tone of the precious metals complex. On the surface, the current decline is severe enough to look like the final move into an ICL. But Gold’s longer term Investor Cycle suggests that another DC is needed to complete the IC.

In the immediate term, Gold is clearly oversold and should move higher in a new Daily Cycle rally. But based upon the sector’s clear weakness, it would not be a surprise if the rally lasted only a day. Remember, the next DC should be the last of the current Investor Cycle, and if it’s true to form, should end with twenty sessions of panicked selling.

 

11-14 gold daily

 

Although Gold’s week was negative overall, the bleeding was fairly contained. And after four consecutive weeks lower, it’s due for a Daily Cycle rally that should push it temporarily higher. The rally could be fast and convincing enough to cause steadfast bulls to again proclaim that a double bottom has occurred.

But because the timing and evidence support another significant move lower, I believe that any rally will be very short lived. The new Daily Cycle rally should be just enough to clear oversold technical levels and allow the Bollinger Bands to expand to accommodate the next big decline.

For those asking whether the current decline could be a short, 16 week ICL, I just don’t see it. A perfect double bottom forming with the July low would wrap a nice bow around the bear market, but the evidence doesn’t support it. It is not impossible by any stretch, but it is very unlikely.

 

11-14 gold weekly

 

Possible Trading Strategy

Nimble traders could buy a Swing Low (when one arrives), since the Daily Cycle is well past due for a rally. For anyone who takes such a trade, setting tight stops and actively managing/increasing them will be important.

The higher percentage or better risk/reward trade would come from allowing the oversold levels to cool off with a  strong 2-3 day rally, and to then consider putting on a Short position. This should be a high percentage trade because of the high likelihood of a big decline into December.

 

The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s, and Natural Gas Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to two different portfolios and trade alerts. Both portfolios trade on varying time-frames (from days, weeks, to months), there is a portfolio to suit all member preferences.

You’re just 1 minute away from profitable trades! please visit: https://thefinancialtap.com/