Gold on the Ledge

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Gold on the Ledge

 

Cycle Counts

Cycle Count Observation

Cycle Trend

Cycle Clarity
Daily Day 11 Range 24-28 Days –  4th Daily Cycle Topped  GREEN
Investor Week 18 Range 22-26 Weeks Topped
  GREEN

 

This is my favorite time within any Cycle.  Mostly because it’s one of three points within an Investor Cycle where the probability of getting it right is as favorable as it will ever be.  If played correctly, it’s also the type of setup where your portfolio can be given a significant boost.  In this case, I am of course talking about the final Daily Cycle top, where the move down into the Daily and Investor Cycle Lows is often the most powerful and convincing of events.

Of course, my usual disclaimer is provided here (mostly for any new members).  There are no guarantees to any technical study/discipline.  And although your confidence level in any given setup may be high, it’s still a fine balance between being aggressive and defensive.   On the chart below, I highlight the Day 5 peak in October, near $1,308, where if gold were to exceed any bearish interpretation must be abandoned.

But I doubt we get anywhere near.  So for the current Daily Cycle, all I can say is watch out below!  What I see here is a final Daily Cycle peak occurring on Day 9, right above the 20-dma.  From a timing perspective this is as perfect and as you would expect for a final Daily Cycle.  From a Cycle’s Setup standpoint, the chart below shows a very well constructed Investor Cycle starting in July with two Daily Cycles up and now what will end up becoming three Daily Cycle down.  It should end as a perfect 6-month Investor Cycle trough to trough.  From the way the market sold off last Friday leads me believe that the top for this Daily Cycle is already in.  And the $USD is also consolidating lower into it’s own Cycle Low, meaning that once it begins its new rally this week it with further add pressure to gold.

 

 

 

Providing more confidence that a big Investor Cycle Low is ahead in the December time-frame is by looking at the precious metal miners performance.  I mean just one look at the chart below clearly illustrates how underwhelming they have been and how bearish the chart looks.

Remember that miners are almost always a leading indicator for the gold cycle and they’re currently locked in a sustained downtrend.  Sadly too, the chart technically has plenty of room to support another major selloff before ending in capitulation.

 

 

What the bears should focus on is that we certainly have zero evidence of a prior Cycle Low.  Gold’s weekly Cycle Lows are always very clear events on the chart, which is obvious to me why we have the final capitulation phase of the Cycle still ahead of us.  With now a declining 10-week moving average and a fourth Daily Cycle right in position to turn lower, I’m afraid a major sell-off will be difficult to avoid here.

 

 

Could I be wrong?  Absolutely, I’m not a stubborn analyst, I merely trade with my knowledge of Cycles and the probability they afford.  If I’m wrong, then gold will move higher above $1,308 and traders should immediately flip bullish, as it would indicate a major change in market character.  But honestly, all the history suggests that gold is about to see a $100 fall.  However, it would not be the end of the world for gold, but just another trough in the ebb and flow world of Cycles.  In fact, I look forward to that Cycle Low, as I will be trading it Long aggressively and also plan to add significantly to my store of gold bullion.

 

Trading Strategy

If the market did top on Friday, then the potential downside in gold is such that the type of gains could offer up really massive gain in the portfolio.  It’s the type of high confidence Cycle trade I prefer because it offers an attractive asymmetrical trade, meaning that the risk is fairly well defined and managed, but the potential gains from this type of setup are in the magnitude of 6x or more the risk.

I’ve already entered into some aggressive short Gold and Precious Metals Miners positions.  My risk to capital on each trade is less than 1% because I am using the $1,308 level on gold and the $23.02 level on GDX as my stopping point.

One important aspect of such trades is to always remain patient and allow the trade to unfold.  You always want to ignore the intra-day market gyrations and stick to the plan.  This type of trade will either stop out for a small loss or you want to keep an eye on an early December Cycle Low, nothing before that.  As always though, we should accept what the market gives…or does not.  If the analysis ends up being incorrect, despite the heightened level of confidence, then that is OK too because the trade setup has planned (although do not expect) for that possibility.  Planning for both outcomes affords you the luxury of not having to get emotional on a trade or the need to babysit it.

 

 

 

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The Financial Tap publishes a weekly premium member reports. The report cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, and $USD, Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to a real-time portfolio with trade alerts, and constant education on trade and risk management.  Although an important aspect, the service is not only about trade signals.  I want to help traders and investors become better and to learn from experience in a way that will help them develop their own unique strategy/system.

 

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The Financial Tap is primarily geared towards helping traders and Investors become better.  We walk you through the process of Trade Setup and identification through the study of market Cycles.  There is an extreme emphasis placed on Risk Management and on preserving capital.

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Danger Zone - Gold Decline - The Financial Tap

Danger Zone

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Danger Zone – Gold Decline

As the days and weeks continue to pass, gold is struggling to show us anything close to the strength seen during the 2016 rally.  And the more gold continues to perform in a lackluster manner, the more I begin to consider that 2016 strength as a bear market counter-rally.  If that were true, it would mean the action since the 2016 top is a continuation of the bear market that started in 2011!

Of course, gold has yet to fail in such a fashion, so there is still enough evidence to support the bear market ended over a year ago.  And if the equity markets are near the top of an eight year bull market, then we could expect gold to outperform (inversely correlated) in the coming years.  With the equity markets at fairly extreme levels, forecasting longer term, across varying asset classes, is difficult to do.  Therefore, for the time being it is best we appreciate just how difficult and extreme the current landscape, rather than trying to force any one specific viewpoint dogmatically.

The Daily Cycle (DC) is still showing us somewhat of an uptrend, although gold remains barely above the 10-dma.  The clear failure to make new highs in this 3rd DC cannot be ignored and such action is rarely bullish. In fact, most Investor Cycle (IC)  tops occur from a similar profile, where the 3rd DC fails to better the 2nd DC in the early portion of the advance.  Therefore, a failure to make new highs is concerning, because it leaves behind a H&S topping pattern, which then becomes the impetus for a multi-week, IC decline.

 

Danger Zone - Gold Decline - The Financial Tap $GLD #GOLD

One point about the above gold chart is that we could still see a good spike next week that makes new 2017 highs.  In such an event, I suspect the bulls will become concerned they’re missing out on a rally and jump onto the trade.  In my opinion, this late in the Daily Cycle, that would be something I would completely ignore and view as a trap being set.  After a few days of breaking out, I would in fact be interested in trading short the gold Cycle, once we see a confirmed closing Swing High.

Besides the unfavorable Cycle counts, the main reason why I am now concerned with a Gold Decline is due to how the satellite assets within the gold Cycle are trading.  For example, the precious metals miners and platinum generally lead the gold Cycle and are indicative of future performance.

In that case, they’re telling us a completely different story.  Firstly, none of these assets made a 3rd Daily Cycle high, so we do not have a bullish confirmation.  And in all the charts below, each asset is well below the 2nd DC high and trending lower already.  I’m afraid to say that gold and these satellite assets never trade this way during a bull market uptrend.

 

Danger Zone - Gold Decline - The Financial Tap $GLD #GOLD

Based on the analysis I presented, we should consider that gold is now back at a fork.  I believe we will find out next week if there is anything left in this Cycle, whether it wants to attempt to make a run higher for another week or two, despite the poor showing to date.  Whatever the outcome though, be warned that upside gains in the intermediate term a likely limited.

Remember that 16 weeks into a (typical 20-24 week) Cycle is not the time to be bullish on any asset.  Of course we do occasionally see situations where an asset surprises, despite the evidence.  But in this case, I strongly caution all members to limit or cease their attempts to capture gains on the long side.  It’s a time to play defense now, understanding that the best time to push the pedal is before week 10 of any Cycle.

 

Danger Zone - Gold Decline - The Financial Tap $GLD #GOLD

 

 

 

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The Financial Tap is primarily geared towards helping traders and Investors become better.  We walk you through the process of Trade Setup and identification through the study of market Cycles.  There is an extreme emphasis placed on Risk Management and on preserving capital.

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CrCrude Oil Continuation - The Financial Tap

Crude Oil Continuation

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I like this Crude oil decline, and to date, it has been a picture perfect Cycle’s development.  Members of The Financial Tap were already tracking that expectation in advance, and positioned well to take advantage.  But that big decline, which started on March 7th took many by surprise, judging by the extreme (Long) positioning seen with the COT report.  And if you were not already short before the move began, the speed of the decline made it nearly impossible to establish a new position thereafter.

I believe that might not be the case anymore and another opportunity is at hand.  We’ve seen a clear Cycle Low (March 14th) in my opinion, and that was confirmed with the rally after the FOMC last week.  I know it was only a three day rally, but the move back to the 10-day moving average is possibly all that we’re going to see, from a counter-trend perspective.

 

The COT report has improved somewhat, so obviously the “easy money” has been made on the short side.  But the report remains bearish, and only tells me that the process of shifting from excessive long to short is still in progress, and will take time to complete.  This also matches the fact that crude is now in an Investor Cycle decline, that process will be aided by leveraged longs capitulating and speculators picking up more short positions.

Interestingly too, crude oil sentiment is down, as expected…but still nowhere near the types of lows I believe we need to get to.  When we consider the bearish COT report and the amount of time remaining in this Investor Cycle, I feel that we still have some way to go before looking for a meaningful bottom.

 

To the weekly chart, where I see a lot of downside work left in that chart.  Now that this Cycle has given way and is in the declining portion, there is just no way it ends until it at least becomes oversold and touches the lower Bollinger bands.  That would be the best case scenario for the bulls.

Therefore, it is my expectation that crude will fall another $7, at a minimum.  Thereafter, it’s really anyone’s guess whether this ICL becomes a double bottom retest (around $42/$43) with the last ICL.  Or in the worst case, this becomes a rout/crash that can be compared to the 2008 or 2014 declines.  In that case, the downside over just the next two months is as far down as the low $30’s!

 

 

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The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to a real-time portfolio with trade alerts.

Performance

The Financial Tap is primarily geared towards helping traders and Investors become better.  We walk you through the process of Trade Setup and identification through the study of market Cycles.  There is an extreme emphasis placed on Risk Management and on preserving capital.

For the past 12 month period, the Financial Tap model portfolio is up 17.5%, without ever using options/margin and without ever risking more than 1% on any given trade idea.  The max draw-down in that 12 month period has been just 2.8%.

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Gold Silver Ratio - The Financial Tap

Is the Gold Silver Ratio Predictive

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Gold Silver Ratio

One aspect of the precious metals market today that I like is the Gold Silver Ratio.  It appears to have topped, right along with the 2016 gold bottom, and for all gold bull followers out there this is certainly a welcomed development.  Precious metals bear markets always hit silver hard, while bull markets always see Silver outperform gold.  As a result, the Gold Silver Ratio rises during bear markets and then falls during bull markets.

On the chart below, the long rising channel represents the precious metals bear market when gold/silver were both sold aggressively.  Each peak in the ratio, as seen with the red arrows, correspond with major Cycle price lows.  Meaning that as gold sold and collapsed into each yearly low, Silver as a ratio was hammered further.

But that trend has reversed, and silver has for the first time in five years outperformed gold.  The chart shows the Gold Silver Ratio has turned lower, meaning that with the last big gold selloff, Silver actually outperformed gold, on a relative basis.  It’s not proof of a bear market low, but we do know that every precious metals bull market saw silver dramatically outperform gold.  In every case, the Gold Silver ratio turn lower as the entire metals complex went higher.  From my perspective, it would appear that the ratio has broken lower and that a new downtrend has been established.

 

Gold Silver Ratio - The Finanical Tap

 

 

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The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to a real-time portfolio with trade alerts.

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Where are the Gold Traders?

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Where are the Gold Traders?

This is the 3rd piece on gold that highlights how unloved gold remains today.  Considering the 2016 rally in gold and the turbulent times we now find ourselves in, to be honest I’m rather surprised there are not significantly more gold traders all over this market.  Part 1 and Part 2 cover the initial stages of this rally from the December lows.  Below is an excerpt from the Financial Tap Member weekly weekend report.

I am rather surprised to read across the blogosphere how a majority of Gold Traders appear to discount and undermine the current gold market.  I can appreciate that the longer term cyclical outlook remains unresolved, but in the short-term at least, I believe the gold sector looks to be in great shape.

My view comes with the hindsight of the Cycle count.  From what I can see, we recently completely a clear 1st Daily Cycle Low and have already moved higher to new Investor Cycle (Weekly Cycle) highs.  Historically, with the second Daily Cycle just starting out, we are now in the most bullish portion of a 26 week Cycle.  That means the performance over the next 3-4 week normally shows the best return for the entire Investor Cycle period.

In looking at the chart below, I see that new highs on Thursday confirm that we have a new Daily Cycle in motion.  The DCL was relatively mild and short, but then again being a 1st DCL this is not unusual or particularly surprising.  And if we consider the 1st DC rally was orderly and not excessively overbought, then there was no real need to see a punishing Cycle decline to counter that rally.  Because the 1st DC that was extremely right translated, my most favored outlook is to expect a significant surge in gold over the coming 10 to 15 trading days.

 

Where are the Gold Traders- The Financial Tap

I often receive emails from concerned members or posts on the Bull Bear Talk forum (http://www.bullbeartalk.com) asking if I’m sure the market completed a Cycle Low.  Or if I see the possibility of a Cycle Low decline to come.  Their concern is out of fear of losing, rather than seeing the opportunity in the setup.  And generally that fear comes from a lack of proper trade sizing and risk management, because losing trades for some people ending up costing them far too much of their capital.

My answer is generally the same, in that we should always favor the possibility that best fits the evidence.  If you’re concerned about taking a trade, then take half the size so it’s not a mental burden.  But do not look for the outlier possibility to every scenario out of fear.  If you’re going to follow Cycle’s analysis, then stick with the most plausible scenario and build your trade position around that narrative.  Picking trade winners is difficult enough, but coming up with correlated asset arguments or unlikely Cycle outlooks means you’re automatically going to be trading an idea that has a 33% win rate at best.

Always look at the evidence as it stands, meaning the recent price action and what has occurred, not what might occur.  Look at the chart of precious metal miners below, for example.  Sure, this could be a sinister move designed to draw in the bulls.  But that goes to my point above; we cannot sit back and look at the worst case scenario, that’s what defining a stop point is designed to protect us against.   The chart below, with the evidence seen in gold/silver price, tell me that we have a great setup ahead.

 

Where are the Gold Traders- The Financial Tap

What I like most about this setup is that sentiment has actually been going down.  A similar phenomena is being recorded within the COT report, where speculative traders have yet to offload their short position, let alone begun the normal short to long rotation seen during every Investor Cycle.

Unless gold is back into a bear market trend, such as circa 2011-2015, then the sentiment chart below indicates that gold could rally for another 2-3 months before reaching the overbought levels associated with bull market, IC Tops.

 

COT Report - Where are the Gold Bull - The Financial Tap

We have now completed seven weeks of this Investor Cycle and in my opinion we have a perfectly formed bull market Investor Cycle.  The 10-week moving average has turned higher now, and trailing technical indicators show support for a move higher supported for another month or two.

We also have a weekly MACD bullish cross developed. Essentially with a 2nd Daily Cycle just starting out, we have all the right confirmations and pieces in place now for the next powerful move.  I continue to stress that nobody can tell you if this will end up as a powerful Right Translated Cycle, as seen in the first half of 2016.  But I can say that a powerful bullish setup has formed and Gold Traders want to be positioned in a way where they can capitalize on a 2016 like rally.  At the same time, it’s not a call to be all-in, we want to remain defensive enough (risk defined) to come out relatively unscathed in the event a bear market decline returns.

 

 

 

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Gold Bulls Returning | The Financial Tap

Returning Gold Bulls

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Returning Gold Bulls

Back in December, I noted that there was not a Gold bull to be found (See post: Not a Gold Bull in Sight) and that the Gold Cycle was on the verge of a significant Cycle turn.  Fast forward a month, and 20 days of this Daily Cycle (DC), gold is up almost $100 and has again caught the attention of gold bulls.

Since the Cycle turn, this has been a rather interesting first Daily Cycle in gold.  Mostly because the rally over the first twenty days has been fairly constant, with the half Cycle Low noticeably absent.  Moreover, the move has not seen a surge based on a typical rush to cover short positions normally seen around the turn of any Investor Cycle.

The last point might end up being more important than we think.  Looking at this week’s commitment of trader’s report (COT), I’ve noticed that speculative Long and Short positions have barely turned off their recent extremes.   Meaning that this $90 first DC move really has not come off the back of a shift in speculative positions.  This is precisely why you do not see any large spikes in volume or price on any of the given 20 days of the Cycle. Therefore, from what I can tell, a larger degree rally lies potentially ahead for this Investor Cycle, setting the scene for an impressive 2nd Daily Cycle to come.

When the gold Cycle first turned higher almost a month ago, I said that we could expect a $100 rally over the first 20 sessions.  As it stands today, the Cycle has hit day 20 and rallied $90+ off the Cycle Low.  It is at a point where we should check our short-term expectations going forward.  Although never ruling out another solid performing week ahead, it would also be consistent with past bullish patterns for gold to dip over the next week to form the DCL.

 

For the dollar, a big drop a week back on Day 18 of the Cycle was our confirmation that the decline had begun. Following through from that point, we now see the dollar at new lows on Day 26 today, further pushing below the Bollinger bands into deep (short-term) oversold territory.  This is pretty much well beyond the normal Cycle Low timing band.

Therefore, a turn higher is absolutely imminent, and a rally of at least 3-5 sessions is expected.  Because gold is also near a natural Cycle topping point, the push higher by the dollar will only help to send gold lower at least temporarily.  From that point, I do expect the dollar’s next Cycle to form Left Translated, opening up the possibility of a significant sell-off post the Trump inauguration, and a decline into the next major Weekly Cycle Low.

 

As mentioned in the introduction, Sentiment and COT reports show very little change of late, even as gold begins to complete the initial thrust in this young Investor Cycle. With gold back over the 10-week moving average, and the technicals looking fantastic, all of my indicators here are in a significantly bullish alignment.  Therefore, always appreciating that bear market rallies can be deceiving, I still believe there is plenty of room above for gold to allow for a significant rally.

 

 

 

 

 

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The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to a real-time portfolio with trade alerts.

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Dow 20,000 is Irrelevant

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Dow 20,000 is Irrelevant

Seeing so much discussion around the importance of Dow 20,000 and the likelihood that falling just shy signals a market on the verge of collapse.  Well, it’s no secret that I am a macro bear and see no value in this market.  But that is irrelevant to the market and price today, just as Dow 20,000 is irrelevant too.

In fact, I’m very bullish on the S&P in the short term, because sentiment remains very high and we’ve seen a pause of late lead to a tightening of the Bollinger bands.  Such consolidations, especially in a market that has become so speculative, has the potential to provide a significant amount of fuel behind a move.

With regards to possible direction of any move, we know the Daily and Investor Cycle counts are very favorable for the Long side.  Therefore, I’m expecting that a massive push higher is likely to begin soon.  The recent Cycle Low would become a clear stopping point, if that interpretation is incorrect, so a good setup is at hand for those who do not have long exposure.

 

Dow 20,000 is Irrelevant - The Financial Tap

 

 

 

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The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to a real-time portfolio with trade alerts.

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Dead Gold Bull - The Finanical Tap

Not a Gold Bull in Sight

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Not a Gold Bull in Sight

In last weekend’s report, we covered how the Daily Cycle count was stretching too far, so marking a Nov 15th Daily Cycle Low (DCL) made sense.  Doing so means that another DC began on Nov 16, and that puts today’s date in the normal timing band for a new DCL.  So with another DCL fast approaching, the capitulation decline we saw this week fits perfectly with expectations.

The large drops in Silver and the Miners are strong indications that the final capitulation for the current Daily and Investor Cycles is at hand.

(Keep in mind this is an except from a premium report published over the past weekend.  Prices on charts reflect Friday’s close)

 

An outlook is not an absolute call, so until Gold bottoms we’ll be dealing in probabilities.  I’m highlighting the most likely outcome to enable consideration of the risk/reward profiles on potential trades.  So, while I expect that a major low in Gold is imminent, traders should still be cautious.  I cannot stress enough that traders must be both realistic and patient as they consider possible market moves.  And they need to understand that trading with a good probability of success does not guarantee that they will be correct.

Turning to the Miners, the lack of a sharp “V” bounce after Thursday’s low suggests that more downside is ahead.  The 20+ day triangle bear pattern cracked to the downside on Wednesday, and this type of decline typically runs for 3 to 5 sessions, so we should be close to the DCL/ICL.  Another weak open next week should give way to a solid reversal higher.

 

But remember – the tail-end of any Cycle can be extremely dangerous.  Too many traders fear missing the early part of the next rally and are burned by the declines that come with a final washout decline.  The last week of any Cycle is typically the most volatile, and provides the largest price change, so I’d urge extreme caution with Gold.

That said, we covered the possibility of a final flush lower last week, and that’s what has come to pass. While we can never rule out further declines, I believe that the end of the coming week will see Gold moving higher in a new Investor Cycle!

 

 

 

 

The Financial Tap – Premium

The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to a real-time portfolio with trade alerts.

NOTE:  It’s just $99 for a full 3 months of membership, a fraction of what one stopped out trade is likely to cost you.  Consider joining The Financial Tap and receive two reports per week and the education you need to become a better trader or investor   See >> SIGN UP PAGE!

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Trump Stock Market

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Trump Stock Market

Equities sold off sharply as the election results started to come in, but by the end of the week, the market had settled generally higher.  As with Gold, equities have a Cycle trending in a certain direction, and we should continue to follow the dominant trend until the action directs otherwise.

The Dow Jones made a new high this week, but the broader market has yet to follow.  And since weekly Cycle timing continues to favor more downside before an Investor Cycle Low (ICL), the resistance line on the below chart should continue to hold.  At this point, there is not enough evidence to warrant speculating about a new Investor Cycle (IC) and IC rally.

For now, a reversal lower from here as part of a Left Translated Cycle is the highest probability scenario for equities.  But the highest probability scenario does not always come to pass.  If, instead of rolling over, the market moves to a new all-time high, we will need to quickly change our perspective.

It is not always easy for traders to shift quickly – too often our egos get tied up in a viewpoint – but the markets do not care.  They will go where they go.  At best, traders are right on a market’s direction only 60% of the time; it’s how a trader formulates and executes his strategy that matters most.  Traders must embrace planning and execution, and must remain adaptive.  To do otherwise risks getting caught in a position that is fighting a trend.

 

11-12-equities-daily

The size of the post-election, Trump Stock Market bounce has pushed the weekly Cycle indicators high enough to threaten a new Investor Cycle.  The possibility is very real, but it’s not a slam dunk.  If we are in a new IC, an ICL would have been printed at 18 weeks, slightly short of the normal timing band for it.  And from a technical standpoint, the ICL would have been very mild.

The S&P has moved back above the 10-week moving average – generally confirmation of a new IC – but it has not yet decisively smashed through this resistance zone and moved to a new all-time high.  If it can move quickly to a new high, a major rally could well be brewing.  Until then however, I will continue to expect a more traditional ICL selloff in the coming 6 to 8 weeks.

 

11-12-equities-weekly

 

 

The Financial Tap – Premium

The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to two different portfolios and trade alerts. Both portfolios trade on varying time-frames (from days, weeks, to months), there is a portfolio to suit all member preferences.

NOTE:  The Financial Tap offers you a Full 14 day, no risk, money back Trial.  It’s just $99 thereafter for a full 3 months of membership, a fraction of what one stopped out trade is likely to cost you.  Consider joining The Financial Tap and receive two reports per week and the education you need to become a better trader or investor   See >> SIGN UP PAGE!

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Bob.

Bond Cycle Timing

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Bond Cycle Timing

It’s possible that Oct 14th marked the last Daily Cycle Low (DCL) in Bonds, but I continue to believe that we’ll see one more decline before the final low.

 

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In many ways, the Bond and Gold Cycles continue to move in unison.  Both assets are generally defensive in nature, so it’s no surprise that both have consolidated for months and that both appear to be on the verge of a new Cycle rally.

For an asset locked into a bull market trend, Bond’s current consolidation has been both long & deep.  In theory, the eventual move out of the next Investor Cycle Low should be inversely similar, with a rise that is both powerful and sustained.

10-22-bonds-weekly 

 

The Financial Tap – Premium

The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to two different portfolios and trade alerts. Both portfolios trade on varying time-frames (from days, weeks, to months), there is a portfolio to suit all member preferences.


 
 
NOTE:  The Financial Tap offers you a Full 14 day, no risk, money back Trial.  It’s just $99 thereafter for a full 3 months of membership, a fraction of what one stopped out trade is likely to cost you.  Consider joining The Financial Tap and receive two reports per week and the education you need to become a better trader or investor   See >> SIGN UP PAGE!

join-now
 
 

Bob.