Resume Programming

Posted by Bob Loukas
On February 25, 2018
Cycles, Dollar, GDX, Gold, miners, Silver

I'm also liking the reaction since the lows two weeks back, overall it is encouraging action. If the market can break back above the 2,755 level and to new three week highs, then I would want to be positioned long again as another 20-week rally could be unfolding.

Fat Pitch

Posted by Bob Loukas
On February 17, 2018
Cycles, Dollar, GDX, Gold, miners, Silver

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Next in Line

Posted by Bob Loukas
On February 11, 2018
Cycles, Dollar, GDX, Gold, miners, Silver

Obviously the IC has topped, and based on COT report we should have 4-6 weeks lower. Most Crude ICL's drop a minimum of 20%, and because this one was so extremely overbought, that would be my absolute minimum target here. Therefore, I suspect that another $5 to $7 decline before the next ICL occurs.

A Slippery Slope

Posted by Bob Loukas
On February 3, 2018
Cycles, Dollar, GDX, Gold, miners, Silver

In that case, a four week decline into the next ICL, at around 2,600-2,650, would be the type of ICL you would expect in a bull market uptrend. Over a 200 point or 10% decline may seem like an overkill, but believe me it's only a little over the historical average of a 7% ICL decline. Also consider that we have not seen a decline of more than 5% since 2016 and a 200 point drop only moves the S&P back to the rising 26-week moving average.

A View from the Summit

Posted by Bob Loukas
On January 28, 2018
Cycles, Dollar, GDX, Gold, miners, Silver

The separation from the 26-week moving average is the furthest we've seen in decades. The rally is taking on a near vertical posture now as we've seen four straight weeks poking above the upper Bollinger bands. We have seen such extremes in the past, but they have been reserved for the very tip/end of major market moves. There is no doubt based on the extreme technical readings that we're in a blow-off move. The only question is for how long it can be sustained.

Preparing for a Spill

Posted by Bob Loukas
On January 21, 2018
Cycles, Dollar, GDX, Gold, miners, Silver

I've added some form of COT data to the Crude Oil analysis for many weeks now. And each week, the speculators continue to push with ever more leverage, driving price higher, while setting the scene for what will eventually become a massively over-leveraged position they will need to aggressively wind down.

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