Another Failure

Posted by Bob Loukas
On November 10, 2018
bitcoin, Cycles, Dollar, GDX, Gold, miners, Silver

What a difference a week or two makes. One could argue that we're just seeing a retracement back to the 10-week moving average. But the problem is that we're already 12 weeks into the Investor Cycle without a solid rally to speak of. With a COT report stacked perfectly for a massive rally, this anemic performance is more in line with a Left Translated Failed Cycle. And gold in the end has closed the week below the 10-week moving average, which for me has always been a major warning sign that an IC has topped.

Rule #1 – Trade the Trend

Posted by Bob Loukas
On November 7, 2018
Cycles, Education, Top 10 Rules

“The trend is your friend” may be the most widely used truism in investing…and it’s directly applicable to the study of Cycles. Trading with the trend comes in at #1 on my Top 10 rules list because I believe it is one of the most important rules to follow. All too often I speak with traders obsessed with a biased view of the market. When that market is moving against their belief, they’re fixated on trying to pick a bottom or top (at any cost) in a severely trending market. The reality is that picking turns correctly is nearly impossible to do, at least not consistently. The biggest sin is that repeated attempts at catching the turn leaves the trader missing the primary trending opportunity, which in a bull or bear market extreme is often some serious gains. Lastly, who could forget that the process of catching reversals in a trending market leaves the trader with a portfolio having suffered a “death by a thousand paper cuts”.

Midweek Video Update – 11-7-2018

Posted by Bob Loukas
On November 7, 2018
bitcoin, Cycles, Dollar, GDX, Gold, miners, Silver

Midweek Update Video - Nov 7th, 2018

Gathering Steam

Posted by Bob Loukas
On November 3, 2018
bitcoin, Cycles, Dollar, GDX, Gold, miners, Silver

But a different picture on the weekly dollar chart. We just had new 2018 highs on Week 6 of the Investor Cycle, which obviously can only be described as a bullish development. A pullback is possible for the short term, but a rally thereafter into the new year is expected. Clearly this is the number one obstacle for a solid gold cycle rally.

Start and the End

Posted by Bob Loukas
On October 28, 2018
bitcoin, Cycles, Dollar, GDX, Gold, miners, Silver

We have the type of decline going where I would normally expect a Yearly Cycle Low to be at the end of it. But we're only six or eight months removed from the last big Cycle Low, and that concerns me because there is room for another full Investor Cycle Low within this current Yearly Cycle. We could be looking at a massive bear trap after recently reaching new all-time highs. I'm not calling a major top, but this is not a good sign for the Cyclical bull market. Of course, new all-time highs negates all bearish signs.

Midweek Video Update – 10-24-2018

Posted by Bob Loukas
On October 24, 2018
bitcoin, Cycles, Dollar, GDX, Gold, miners, Silver

Midweek Update Video - October 24th, 2018

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