But I am by no means bearish. In fact, as I alluded to recently, I believe we might be on the verge of something very special out of gold. I feel that equities and risk markets are going to significantly under-perform in 2019 and might possibility be heading into a more protracted bear market. In that case, we know that gold should significantly outperform as capital flees to alternative safe-haven assets. We did see a big surge higher to form a Right Translated Weekly Cycle. I personally did not expect gold to see new highs for this IC because it was already into the 3rd DC and performing poorly overall. This relatively flat Right Translated Cycle gives me the impression that gold is just wanting to burst out to begin a new up-trend. But until that point, I believe it will become a bull trap, allowing for the reversal down into a shallow late Dec or early Jan ICL.

The mixed bag extends to the weekly chart with a number of recent lows that could mark the ICL. It is very difficult to tell, which is another reason why I'm not in any hurray to take on a new position. To be honest, I'm more interested in what happens in 2019...do we have a bear market top in place? For now, focus on the holiday season and the FOMC meeting in mid-December. This is generally a bullish period for stocks so I wouldn't be trading against this market.

This week we have a video Cycles update.

Now with my last statement I am mindful of not being blind to price action or overly biased in what I want out of gold. To be honest, maybe there is an element of that in my consideration of the price action or in my willingness to hold out hope. This is why when I look at the below weekly chart, what hope I do have will be kept on an extremely tight leash. There are no more excuses for a gold Cycle already on Week 14 that has just regained the 10-week moving average. We need to see follow through immediately and for gold to remain closing above a now rising 10-week moving average.

Midweek Update Video - Nov 14th, 2018