Entries by Big League Finance
No Looting in the Markets
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All is Forgotten
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Rock ‘n’ Roll
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Another Year
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Follow the Process – Public
Weekly report covering Gold, Equities, Crude, Dollar, and Bitcoin
Midweek Video Update – 10-18-2018
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Bond Cycle Timing
There is an argument to be made that the current Dollar rally is only noise. Or better put, that this is simply the normal ebb and flow of a Cycle on a longer timeframe. I say this because the Dollar’s move has been contained in a well-defined trading range. At this point, only a significant break above the 100 level on the Dollar index would be decisive; everything else mirrors past flows.
A Spill in the Making – Free Report
OPEC made some bullish announcements this week, which lifted the price of Crude Oil. Even so, experience suggests that OPEC will have little ability to manage Oil prices going forward; it’s members are too dependent on Oil revenues to cut output significantly for any length of time. In addition, many are in desperate economic positions, so it’s unlikely that any OPEC members will restrain production. They have consistently demonstrated that they are incapable of taking short term pain (by cutting production) to achieve higher prices over the long term.
Let the Show Begin
Despite my being positioned for upside, there are still reasons to be skeptical of Gold’s immediate prospects. Chief among them is the lack of a clear ICL when one was due. If Gold were to lose the 20-day moving average or the 10-week moving average, the near term bullish case would be negated and I would brace for a more traditional IC price decline.
The lack of an IC price decline is a primary reason that I see the potential for a $200 rally. And the presence of a (bullish) pennant consolidation, followed by a new high, provides fuel and a target for a move higher. All of that said, seeing the upside scenario is exciting, and we can’t be so blinded that we forget that it is only one of several possible outcomes.