Entries by Bob Loukas

Precarious Times for Equity Markets

February 2, 2015 in /by

It suddenly seems as though the good times in equities might be ending. Though my perspective is based only on “gut feel”, there seems to be an underlying level of fear that has crept into the markets. If so, it’s a real problem for equities. Any market trading at all-time highs and with a valuation far above historical averages requires a continued level of irrational excitement and speculative ignorance to remain sustainable. And fear is not consistent with irrational, speculative ignorance.

When equities price in Risk, it can happen quickly, and I believe the markets are in the early stages of doing just that. Though equities don’t want to believe that significant downside is possible, crashes in commodity prices and massive demand for high quality debt are harbingers of significant declines ahead. In my opinion, the early stages of an equity market decline are unfolding, and it’s only a matter of time before it erupts into a serious event.

Markets on a Ledge

January 31, 2015 in /by

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Midweek Market Update – Jan 28th

January 28, 2015 in /by

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Test of Strength

January 26, 2015 in /by

It should not be lost on anyone that this is the same analysis I presented in the Gold Cycle, but on the other side of the equation. The trend for equities is up, so we should expect a continuation. But as with Gold, there’s a lot of evidence that suggests that the long term trend might be changing. More importantly, we should see the potential for long term Gold and equity market trend changes as symbiotic. Equity market weakness and Gold relative strength are inextricably linked.

A Changing of the Guard

January 24, 2015 in /by

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Draghi to Deflate Gold

January 21, 2015 in /by

It has been a nice run of late for gold here in the latter part of this Daily Cycle. Gold has closed above the 10 day moving average for 13 straight sessions, which is the type of bullish, Right Translated Cycle behavior we’ve been longing for. And I continue to believe that gold has found a floor here on the longer time-framed Cycle, which means that this positive action is part of a larger move that will eventually show gold has moved out of a wide, 18 month basing pattern.

Midweek Market Update – Jan 21st 2015

January 21, 2015 in /by

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Is This Fool’s Gold?

January 18, 2015 in /by

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A Cycle Test for Equity Markets

January 15, 2015 in /by

In my opinion, it’s only going to be a matter of time before the current world-wide deflationary pull and economic weakness begins to directly impact the US economy. Considering the FED has tapered all QE programs, in an interconnected and dependent world, the US economy has not healed enough to withstand this weakness, let alone continue to “carry the world” on its back.

Midweek Market Update – Jan 14th 2015

January 14, 2015 in /by

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