Midweek Market Update – July 10th
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Entries by Bob Loukas
The Script Has Been Written
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Midweek Market Update – June 3rd
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You Don’t Know Where the Market is Heading!
I’ve been of two minds recently regarding the current Cycle picture in equities. So this week I focused more attention on finding secondary evidence to support a more definitive position on direction. As I suspected it might, my research provided an almost endless array of contradictory evidence and facts.
The internet and social media are a mixed blessing to researchers – they can lead to a huge number of hypotheses and points of view, but the quality of information is generally pretty low. At its best, however, the internet can lead to ideas and links to compelling analysis and primary sources. The point is that there exists online a mass of data points, ideas, opinions, analyses and thesis that can occasionally help to bring real clarity of thought, but more often, the information serves only to confuse, and even obfuscate. From a trader’s perspective, the information is generally unable to answer the questions that are of greatest import.
Summer Doldrums
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Gold Cycle Update
Recently within the article More Breathing Room I had outlined how gold had at least 3 weeks of upside surprise left within the current weekly Cycle. Unfortunately, gold did not manage to take advantage and has since shown signs of breaking down. And within the recent weekend premium report, I outlined a rather significant shift in my gold Cycle outlook based almost exclusively on the bearish COT report.
Those concerns materialized almost immediately once the trading week began, as gold dropped a solid $20 drop straight out of the gate. The other concerns were a dollar showing signs of a major Cycle Low, while gold itself is now up to week 10 of the Cycle, a point where every Cycle since 2011 has failed to exceed week 11 with new highs.
Market Update – May 28th
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Game Changer
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Midweek Market Update – May 20th
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Some Breathing Room
Longer term, remember that the March ICL held above the October ICL. With our newfound Cycle clarity, we no longer need to be concerned with the possibility of an early IC failure, so we can once again at least entertain the possibility that the bear market double bottomed in March. I believe that we’re about to see a Short covering rally from the speculators, one that will drive price up to the declining trend-line that marks the place where the last 5 bear market ICs topped. Beyond that, further upside will require that speculators turn bullish and begin buying Long positions again. If that unfolds, we should expect to see Gold cleanly break and exceed the trend-line, and eventually push into the $1,300 range, perhaps as high as $1,375. And if that happens, if Gold has a double bottom ICL followed by a higher IC top, it will be an exciting development for long-suffering bulls!