Game Changer
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Bob Loukas is the founder of The Financial Tap. With over 20 years of experience in market analysis and trading, Bob is a life-long student of economics and has an abiding passion for the financial markets.
He is a leading expert in Market Cycles. His love of Cycles emerged from the study of the work of Walter Bressert, a pioneer in the field.
Originally from Sydney, Australia, Bob has been settled in New York City for the past 16 years. His background is in Computer Sciences, with extensive experience in the Financial Software arena. Prior to launching The Financial Tap, Bob served as a senior executive at various Fortune 50 firms where he led development of financial trading and reporting software.
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Longer term, remember that the March ICL held above the October ICL. With our newfound Cycle clarity, we no longer need to be concerned with the possibility of an early IC failure, so we can once again at least entertain the possibility that the bear market double bottomed in March. I believe that we’re about to see a Short covering rally from the speculators, one that will drive price up to the declining trend-line that marks the place where the last 5 bear market ICs topped. Beyond that, further upside will require that speculators turn bullish and begin buying Long positions again. If that unfolds, we should expect to see Gold cleanly break and exceed the trend-line, and eventually push into the $1,300 range, perhaps as high as $1,375. And if that happens, if Gold has a double bottom ICL followed by a higher IC top, it will be an exciting development for long-suffering bulls!
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A look at the weekly Yen index (below) shows that it has not rallied despite the Dollar’s falling for 8 weeks into at least a deep Daily Cycle Low (DCL). There has been no demand to push the Yen higher while the Dollar has fallen, unlike the Euro, which has staged a counter-trend move.
In addition, the MACD has been rising since Jan 2015, but the Yen’s price has remained flat. Because the Yen did not respond (higher) as the Dollar fell and as traders increased (COT) Longs and covered Shorts, I can only assume that a new leg lower is approaching. One more thing to note: extremely tight Bollinger Bands tell me that a big move is imminent.
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