The only long term factual statement I can make about Gold is that the Investor Cycles are showing a failed series in decline. That’s the definition of a bear market, and shows that Gold wants to continue moving lower. It would feel great to pick the upcoming ICL as the bear market low, but the reality is that our primary expectation must be that the next Investor Cycle is another failed, declining Cycle.

At some point that pattern will reverse, but it will be when the bear market is ready to end, and not before. We can’t (and shouldn’t) attempt to make that call in advance – evidence of a new bull market must emerge prior to any call that the bear market is over. If your ego can allow you to do that, you will be better prepared to accept the highest probability event – another declining Investor Cycle.