It’s important to remember that by week 15 of a Gold Investor Cycle, the odds of a continuation rally have typically really diminished. Now that Gold has closed below the 10 week moving average, and with a bear market in force, the only valid outlook is to expect Gold to go into a tailspin and to ultimately collapse into the next ICL. We should see one more attempt to rally, but there should be no second chances for Gold from this point forward.
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The most bullish path (from a number of possibilities) has tracked this week and we have a solid new Daily and Investor Cycle high. This is by no means (yet) a sign that a new bull market has started, that type of conclusion can only be reached with consecutive higher highs at the Investor Cycle timeframe. I like how the sector has performed here, but let’s not forget that all commodities are doing well with a sharply lower dollar. And for those with short term memory issues, let’s not forget that gold has a habit of drawing in the gold bulls before unleashing another wave of selling.
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