Entries by Bob Loukas

Game Changer

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Midweek Market Update – May 20th

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Some Breathing Room

Longer term, remember that the March ICL held above the October ICL. With our newfound Cycle clarity, we no longer need to be concerned with the possibility of an early IC failure, so we can once again at least entertain the possibility that the bear market double bottomed in March. I believe that we’re about to see a Short covering rally from the speculators, one that will drive price up to the declining trend-line that marks the place where the last 5 bear market ICs topped. Beyond that, further upside will require that speculators turn bullish and begin buying Long positions again. If that unfolds, we should expect to see Gold cleanly break and exceed the trend-line, and eventually push into the $1,300 range, perhaps as high as $1,375. And if that happens, if Gold has a double bottom ICL followed by a higher IC top, it will be an exciting development for long-suffering bulls!

A Period of Speed

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Midweek Market Update – May 13th

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Turning Points

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Midweek Market Update – May 6th

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Yen Troubles to Continue

A look at the weekly Yen index (below) shows that it has not rallied despite the Dollar’s falling for 8 weeks into at least a deep Daily Cycle Low (DCL). There has been no demand to push the Yen higher while the Dollar has fallen, unlike the Euro, which has staged a counter-trend move.

In addition, the MACD has been rising since Jan 2015, but the Yen’s price has remained flat. Because the Yen did not respond (higher) as the Dollar fell and as traders increased (COT) Longs and covered Shorts, I can only assume that a new leg lower is approaching. One more thing to note: extremely tight Bollinger Bands tell me that a big move is imminent.

Dollar Round Two

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Midweek Market Update – April 29th

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