The Bond market has been hot of late and is showing us a new bullish Weekly Cycle is already in play. Several months of declines and consolidation, along with a more hawkish FED, have many believing that the great bond bull market is very much past its prime. But I wouldn’t count the bond market out yet, not this late in the business Cycle. And in the shorter term, the current action is very bullish.
This content is for members only
Back in early July I published the view that we needed “Just a Little Bit More” downside to complete the gold Investor Cycle. All of the indicators and tools we used to spot these turns were firmly in place and it had become a matter of cleaning out the remaining bulls before turning. At the time of publishing, gold stood at $1,130, and my expectation was for one more decline, below $1,110, in order to complete the Cycle and form a major Investor Cycle Low.
Well, with the strength seen in the miners these past few days, we can say with a very high degree of confidence that the Gold Weekly (Investor) Cycle has turned. Judging by the gold chart alone, that call might seem a touch premature. But it’s the gold miners that almost always lead the gold Cycle out of significant troughs.
This content is for members only
This content is for members only
This content is for members only
This content is for members only
This content is for members only
This content is for members only
The only long term factual statement I can make about Gold is that the Investor Cycles are showing a failed series in decline. That’s the definition of a bear market, and shows that Gold wants to continue moving lower. It would feel great to pick the upcoming ICL as the bear market low, but the reality is that our primary expectation must be that the next Investor Cycle is another failed, declining Cycle.
At some point that pattern will reverse, but it will be when the bear market is ready to end, and not before. We can’t (and shouldn’t) attempt to make that call in advance – evidence of a new bull market must emerge prior to any call that the bear market is over. If your ego can allow you to do that, you will be better prepared to accept the highest probability event – another declining Investor Cycle.