Entries by Bob Loukas

Weekend Update – July 11th

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Weekend Update – 4th of July

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Hello from Greece

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Yes Another “Crisis”

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Crude Oil Nearing Exhaustion

For an asset like Crude, which is normally extremely volatile, the current prolonged sideways range is very much out of character. Crude has us accustomed to daily swings of 3% to 5%, and to shorter term rallies/declines that draw in traders before reversing suddenly. Crude is generally an asset that fluctuates in price, so the current “flat-line” action is rare. Since the last Daily Cycle peak on May 6th, Crude oil has been locked in a sideways trading range. Short term traders, expecting the usual crude oil volatility, are being chopped to pieces.

As a result, Crude’s Bollinger Bands are now the tightest they’ve been in over 2 years. And, as with every asset I track, tight Bollinger Bands are almost always a precursor to a significant move. I’m confident that Crude’s next move will be extremely sudden, and is likely to extend far outside the Bollinger Bands before coming to an end.

Midweek Market Update – June 24th

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Patience is Required

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Midweek Market Update – June 17th

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Approaching An Endpoint

A significant component of Cycle study focuses on identifying the type of Cycle an asset is following, and correlating that Cycle type’s typical performance to the asset. When a strong identification is possible, as with Gold today, the predictability of future performance is generally very high. So for the moment, we can only conclude that the bears remain in control, and that Gold is showing a setup only a bear could love. Based on these charts and longer term Cycle counts, we should prepare for a new down-leg. If another rally were to materialize, I’d expect it to be modest and to fizzle very quickly.

Mind that Gap

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