Entries by Bob Loukas

Bear Market Confidence

February 8, 2016 in /by

It’s been 7 years since the start of the bull market, and signs of a market breakdown are now everywhere. A look at past bull market tops (1998-2000, 2005-2007) shows warning signs and divergences as much as two to three years before the top, all while the general equity indices are making new highs.

These signs are evident in today’s market. The commodity sector represents raw materials, and it has been in a deflationary spiral for a couple of years. Emerging markets, even those not heavily dependent on commodities, have been in a bear market for at least two years as well. In particular, China, the bellwether of the world economy and poster child for the current expansion, has been sounding a bearish alarm for well over a year.

No Lack of Optimism – Free Report

February 7, 2016 in /by

Finally! After months of tepid action in Gold, a strong Daily Cycle rally is underway. So far, it’s been as strong as any rally of the past four years, and it’s not over. I had wondered why Gold has not benefited from the aggressive equity selloff…but no longer. Bonds are up sharply, and Gold has also begun to rise, fueled by equity outflows in search of a safe haven. Without question, Gold is locked in a powerful Right Translated Daily Cycle, one that has so far added over $100 in 24 trading days.

Gold Weekly Cycle

February 3, 2016 in /by

With gold moving to $1,140 this morning, we’re finally starting to see bullish sentiment tick up noticeably. Last week’s COT report also showed there were still a number of leveraged speculators holding on to short positions. Rising sentiment and speculator short covering are fairly typical at this point within the weekly gold Cycle and indicative of the final rising portion of the Cycle.