Entries by Bob Loukas

Profit Taking Time

If you followed recent posts, you would know I’ve been bullish on gold as it has turned higher within a new Investor Cycle. Being long here has been great and that three day pause last week, to form a bull flag, has resulted in a quick $47 move. So many people were expecting gold to break-down from that flag, which is partly why the rush to cover and/or buy-in was so aggressive. Some caution is needed now, I noticed a lot of the typical retail crowd on social media getting in at these levels and I noticed options premiums explode. Gold has become fairly overbought in the short-term and we’re also due a Daily Cycle Low soon enough.

Market Update – Aug 20th

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Midweek Market Update – Aug 19th

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A Change in Momentum

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Trade Idea – Bond Market Overextended

The Bond market has been hot of late and is showing us a new bullish Weekly Cycle is already in play. Several months of declines and consolidation, along with a more hawkish FED, have many believing that the great bond bull market is very much past its prime. But I wouldn’t count the bond market out yet, not this late in the business Cycle. And in the shorter term, the current action is very bullish.

Midweek Market Update – Aug12th

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Gold Miners Are Saying It’s Time

Back in early July I published the view that we needed “Just a Little Bit More” downside to complete the gold Investor Cycle. All of the indicators and tools we used to spot these turns were firmly in place and it had become a matter of cleaning out the remaining bulls before turning. At the time of publishing, gold stood at $1,130, and my expectation was for one more decline, below $1,110, in order to complete the Cycle and form a major Investor Cycle Low.

Well, with the strength seen in the miners these past few days, we can say with a very high degree of confidence that the Gold Weekly (Investor) Cycle has turned. Judging by the gold chart alone, that call might seem a touch premature. But it’s the gold miners that almost always lead the gold Cycle out of significant troughs.

The Forgotten Bubble

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Midweek Market Update – Aug 5th

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No Love for Commodities

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