Entries by Bob Loukas

Possible $200 Gold Rally

May 17, 2016 in /by

Despite my being positioned for upside, there are still reasons to be skeptical of Gold’s immediate prospects. Chief among them is the lack of a clear ICL when one was due. If Gold were to lose the 20-day moving average or the 10-week moving average, the near term bullish case would be negated and I would brace for a more traditional IC price decline.

The lack of an IC price decline is a primary reason that I see the potential for a $200 rally. And the presence of a (bullish) pennant consolidation, followed by a new high, provides fuel and a target for a move higher. All of that said, seeing the upside scenario is exciting, and we can’t be so blinded that we forget that it is only one of several possible outcomes.

The Next Crude Spill

April 25, 2016 in /by

Crude’s advance in the face of poor market dynamics leaves it with an Investor Cycle in a precarious position. As outlined earlier, a bear market Investor Cycle making a new high in week 13 is certainly in the topping zone, so Crude could turn over at any time. The previous IC top was near $50, so, in theory, we could still see another surge higher in the coming week or two. In any event, I fully expect Crude to turn down and to begin to sell-off with relentless ferocity.