Entries by Bob Loukas

The Winds of Change

September 13, 2016 in /by

Extended periods of a lifeless, low volume trading range usually give way to volatility and significant moves in price. Going forward, at least over the short term, I expect we will see a series of 1% (plus or minus) moves in the daily indices. Although Friday’s break has significant bearish technical implications, it is too early to assume that the next extended move will be lower. What we can assume, and with a high degree of confidence, is that the next major market move has started.

Another Cycle Higher – S&P

August 29, 2016 in /by

 

Another Cycle Higher - S&P

What we know for certain is that the Daily Cycle is well into the timing band for a Daily Cycle Low (DCL), and has reached a new low on day 44.  To the naked eye, equities appear poised to move even lower.  But from a Cycles standpoint, the S&P is now in a position to move significantly higher.

 

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Bond Sentiment Extreme near a Cycle Turning Point

August 15, 2016 in /by

And this is where we find Bonds today. The Commitment of Traders report shows a massive Long speculative position, while overall Dollar sentiment remains sky-high. Weekly Cycle timing is well into its topping range, and the 4th Daily Cycle (shown below) is beginning to struggle. I would never count Bonds out, at least until we see a failed Daily Cycle, but I am starting to believe that a new down leg in Bonds is almost upon us.