Entries by Bob Loukas

Crude Oil Trap

March 14, 2016 in /by

The weekly and monthly charts always allow us to better understand short-term action. They also provide needed perspective to day and swing traders, who can form powerful and unfounded biases from their observations of short-term moves.

This recent Crude rally has been both powerful and convincing, but we must appreciate that it is only a short-term rally. On the weekly timeframe, it is an inconsequential blip in a much larger and more enduring bear market decline. Just 4 weeks removed from a 17-year low, Crude has given us only a mean-reversion rally so far.

Do Not be Fooled by Crude

March 12, 2016 in /by

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Midweek Cycles Update – March 9th

March 10, 2016 in /by

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Finishing Touches (Market Top)

March 7, 2016 in /by

Since 2015’s broad topping pattern, equities have frequently moved sharply in both directions. The extreme nature of the moves makes predicting the day-to-day markets extremely difficult, which is why traders find it so difficult to profit in an environment like that we have today. In the short term, however, Daily Cycle timing and the market’s overbought status greatly favor a reversal and decline toward the next DCL.

Twists and Turns

March 6, 2016 in /by

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Midweek Cycles Update – March 2nd

March 3, 2016 in /by

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Crowded Gold

February 29, 2016 in /by

Talk of a bull market is cheap, however, so we need to see Cycle evidence develop before we buy the bullish case completely. For now, traders should focus on the highest probability event, an Investor Cycle Low in May. This should provide Short opportunities in the near term, and Long opportunities after the bottom. In fact, the buying of the ICL should be enormous!

Crowded Markets

February 28, 2016 in /by

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Cycles Midweek Update – Feb 25th

February 25, 2016 in /by

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On a String

February 23, 2016 in /by

In this case, the rally has allowed the market to reset to a position where a sell-off into a deeper, final ICL can begin. There is always the chance that a market will go against a well-defined Cycle picture by rallying prematurely without a clean final Daily Cycle low, but that’s the exception and not the rule. At present, it does not look good for the bulls, and the Cycle count does not support any type of bullish outcome. I expect that equities will decline into a mid-March ICL before being treated to a large, counter-trend rally.