Cycles Midweek Update – Feb 25th
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Entries by Bob Loukas
On a String
In this case, the rally has allowed the market to reset to a position where a sell-off into a deeper, final ICL can begin. There is always the chance that a market will go against a well-defined Cycle picture by rallying prematurely without a clean final Daily Cycle low, but that’s the exception and not the rule. At present, it does not look good for the bulls, and the Cycle count does not support any type of bullish outcome. I expect that equities will decline into a mid-March ICL before being treated to a large, counter-trend rally.
One More Run
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All On The Same Side
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Midweek Cycles Updates – Feb 10th
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Bear Market Confidence
It’s been 7 years since the start of the bull market, and signs of a market breakdown are now everywhere. A look at past bull market tops (1998-2000, 2005-2007) shows warning signs and divergences as much as two to three years before the top, all while the general equity indices are making new highs.
These signs are evident in today’s market. The commodity sector represents raw materials, and it has been in a deflationary spiral for a couple of years. Emerging markets, even those not heavily dependent on commodities, have been in a bear market for at least two years as well. In particular, China, the bellwether of the world economy and poster child for the current expansion, has been sounding a bearish alarm for well over a year.
No Lack of Optimism – Free Report
Finally! After months of tepid action in Gold, a strong Daily Cycle rally is underway. So far, it’s been as strong as any rally of the past four years, and it’s not over. I had wondered why Gold has not benefited from the aggressive equity selloff…but no longer. Bonds are up sharply, and Gold has also begun to rise, fueled by equity outflows in search of a safe haven. Without question, Gold is locked in a powerful Right Translated Daily Cycle, one that has so far added over $100 in 24 trading days.
No Lack of Optimism
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Midweek Cycles Update – Feb 3rd
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Gold Weekly Cycle
With gold moving to $1,140 this morning, we’re finally starting to see bullish sentiment tick up noticeably. Last week’s COT report also showed there were still a number of leveraged speculators holding on to short positions. Rising sentiment and speculator short covering are fairly typical at this point within the weekly gold Cycle and indicative of the final rising portion of the Cycle.