Midweek Update – Oct 19th
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Entries by Bob Loukas
Excessive Crude Speculation
Too many people appear to be focused on the inverse head and shoulders bottom that has developed in Crude. While H&S patterns have their place, the problem with the current pattern is that for it develop and complete, Crude needs to be in a new cyclical bull market. I’m OK with a partial breakout – a solid punch above the below trend line – that acts as a bull trap, but that’s all that will make sense at this point. Crude Oil is structurally not ready to resume a bull market, and the macro-economic landscape simply does not align well with one. I believe that we’re seeing a bear market, counter-trend rally that is near exhaustion.
Excessive Speculation
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Midweek Update – Oct 12th
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Pain is Good
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Midweek Cycles Update – Oct 5th
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Gold Price Reversal
It’s easiest to see the Gold’s bullish consolidation via time on the Investor Cycle chart. Gold topped 12 weeks ago and has a failed Daily Cycle behind it, yet is down only $70 from the IC peak. It’s a classic bull market consolidation of the huge six-month rally, and is a significant change in character from what we all lived through during Gold’s bear market.
A Gold Price Reversal is on the way, make no mistake about it, but we may need to be patient as we wait for it. Gold could need another full Daily Cycle lower before finding its ICL, and that would mean another 4-5 weeks of declines. Rest assured, however, that the bull market trend is firmly established. During the next series of higher IC’s, I expect the general public to again pay attention to Gold.
A Spill in the Making
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Midweek Cycles Update – 9/29
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A Gold Shakeout
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