Expecting Volatility
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Midweek Cycles Update – Aug 31st
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The Last Stand
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Midweek Cycles Update – Aug 24th
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Threat of Rain – Aug 20th
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Cycle’s Update – Aug 18th
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Bond Sentiment Extreme near a Cycle Turning Point
Bond Sentiment will lead to a Cycle Turn
The Bond market has obviously been in a strong rally since the April Investor Cycle Low (ICL). History teaches, however, that even during solid bull market moves, corrections into major Cycle Lows are a normal part of the Cycle flow process.
And this is where we find Bonds today. The Commitment of Traders report shows a massive Long speculative position, while overall Bond Sentiment remains sky-high. Weekly Cycle timing is well into its topping range, and the 4th Daily Cycle (shown below) is beginning to struggle. I would never count Bonds out, at least until we see a failed Daily Cycle, but I am starting to believe that a new down leg in Bonds is almost upon us.
A technical caution – if price were to move higher and exceed the current day 6 high, a bullish continuation is possible. For the bulls, loss of the 10-day moving average would be extremely negative, as it would signal a potential downturn and Left Translated Daily Cycle.
The Financial Tap – Premium
The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s, and Natural Gas Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to two different portfolios and trade alerts. Both portfolios trade on varying time-frames (from days, weeks, to months), there is a portfolio to suit all member preferences.
NOTE: The Financial Tap offers you a Full 14 day, no risk, money back Trial. It’s just $99 thereafter for a full 3 months of membership, a fraction of what one stopped out trade is likely to cost you. Consider joining The Financial Tap and receive two reports per week and the education you need to become a better trader or investor See >> SIGN UP PAGE!
Bob.
Bond Sentiment to Tip the Cycle
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Midweek Cycles Update – Aug 10th
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Will this Crude Oil Rally hold?
Will this Crude Oil Rally hold?
Crude has finally reversed higher to recover some of its recent losses, and is now showing clear evidence of a new Daily Cycle (DC) and Crude Oil Rally. There are early signs of a new Investor Cycle (IC) as well.
Midweek, Crude bottomed on day 44 before reversing sharply higher and punching through the declining trend-line. And when it closed above the 10 day moving average, Crude confirmed that it is in the early stages of a new Daily Cycle. From this point forward, Crude’s performance will depend on its Investor Cycle and the bear market as a whole.
(Note: Chart is from the weekend post. Crude is approaching my first mini target at $44 on Tuesday)
In terms of sentiment, there was enough of a selloff to suggest that an ICL occurred. Even though pessimism did not drop to the level of the previous 2 bear market ICLs, it was more than adequate for an ICL, especially with the weekly Cycle extended beyond its normal timing band.
At the very least, Crude has seen a DCL, so we should expect at least 1-2 weeks of upside. Eventually however, given that Crude is in a bear market with a series of lower ICs in play, all paths should lead lower. And that should continue for some time to come.
The Financial Tap – Premium
The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s, and Natural Gas Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to two different portfolios and trade alerts. Both portfolios trade on varying time-frames (from days, weeks, to months), there is a portfolio to suit all member preferences.
NOTE: The Financial Tap offers you a Full 14 day, no risk, money back Trial. It’s just $99 thereafter for a full 3 months of membership, a fraction of what one stopped out trade is likely to cost you. Consider joining The Financial Tap and receive two reports per week and the education you need to become a better trader or investor See >> SIGN UP PAGE!
Bob.