Respecting a Market That Turns Against Your Trading Bias

This video is an excerpt from a member report discussing the need to respect the market when it turns against your primary view.

The most important job of a trader or investor is to first protect their capital.  We get into trouble when we carry a bias and refuse to accept the market is moving against that bias.

In this video I discuss a real world example of such where the market turned, and getting out quickly first, asking questions later, saved us a lot of capital.



Rule #4 – Protect Capital First…Then Worry about Winning Trades

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Rule #3 – Stop Losses

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A Primer on Cycles


In this PDF report I cover in depth my application of Cycles within the financial markets.  In particular, I focus on Gold, Crude Oil, and US Equities.


See the link here:   Article – A Primer on Cycles

Conscious Investing

Conscious Investing

How Investors can control emotions by following a well-defined Investment Plan


Analysis and Systems

Remember that both technical analysis (including Cycles) and trading/investing systems are far from
perfect in their results. The best systems provide a mathematical edge, but are imperfect, so you
should understand their benefits and limitations before you use them. If you start to believe that
you have found a foolproof system, you’re setting yourself up for a fall. It’s critical for you to
understand what type of trader you are, including your tolerance for drawdowns, your preferred
trade duration, whether you are willing to hold trades overnight, etc…and then identify the systems
that work best for you.


Losing Trades

Losing trades are a normal part of trading and investing. Even the world’s best traders have

losers, and these are not a reflection on the trader. Expect to have 40-50% of your trades be
losers. And a losing trade is not necessarily a bad trade – if you diligently followed all of the
Top 10 Investment Rules and your own trading plan. Investing is a game of probabilities. So long
as you follow the rules and execute the trade correctly, then congratulate yourself – the trade is a ‘good trade’, regardless of the outcome.

But to stay in a losing trade beyond your exit criteria (in your trading plan) is simply wrong. If
left unchecked, these losers could turn into a disaster for your financial health. You must be
diligent in avoiding an over-leveraged position which can move against you quickly to become an
oversized loss. There is no better way to deal with a losing trade than to simply close the
position as soon as it meets your stop-loss level. The longer you wait, watching the losses from a
losing trade snowball, the harder it becomes to cut the position.

The best option is always to avoid disasters by getting out at a designated stop loss point to
avoid a big loss. You can ask questions later. Don’t let your biases and convictions about market
direction guide your actions. Worst case, you can always reinitiate the same trade at a later time,
but only after you have closed the original trade and reassessed the new trade again from scratch.

Big losing trades are not only damaging to your portfolio, they can be psychologically and even
physiologically debilitating…and they can directly impact the performance of your following trades.
Big losers can rock your emotional boat, putting you off center and causing you to lose discipline on future trades.

The Markets Never Change

Whenever you think something in the markets might be different this time, consider whether you’re
trying to justify a bias towards a position. This often occurs either during a losing trade or
during euphoric and overly-extended moves. There is nothing new in the markets. Things might look
different for a time, but the different conditions will not last.

Be prepared and willing to be wrong in the markets. And understand that you will be wrong often.
Remember, the markets owe you nothing….and knowing this can make it easier to both close losing
trades and quickly change direction. The best traders are known for an ability to accept being
wrong, and to quickly shift as directed by the market. They respect the market and don’t allow their egos to drive their actions.

Have respect for what the markets are telling you. If you find the market acting or moving in an
unexpected way, try to understand why. Fighting the tape or the market is, over time, a losing


Remain Humble

Always remember that you’re merely a guest of the market, a tiny spec in the grand array of traders
and institutions worldwide. Simply put, you don’t matter, at least not to the

market. What you think you know, others in the market already know. And if you think you’ve found
the next big secret, or that your system is far superior to others…chances are you’re wring. That
you’re either new to trading/investing and have been lucky…or you’ve been ignoring the facts about
your performance.

There is no room for ego in the markets. Far too many traders and investors talk a good game and
boast of great gains, but the reality is that most are net losers in the long run. You may hear
about a risky leveraged trade that paid off, but you never hear about the 3 other risky trades that
eclipsed the trumpeted gain and also took much of the principal. Egotists often ride losing trades
down 30%, 50%, or even 70%; their ego and stubbornness are always their undoing in the end.


Always Check Your Pulse

An investor’s emotional state plays a major role in his or her success – yet few investors openly
talk about their emotions. Whenever an investor is either too excited or too fearful about his
positions or performance, chances are he’s positioned incorrectly. The emotional sweet spot for
trading and investing is devoid of fluctuating and extreme emotions.

Remaining calm and having a clear state of mind is critical when trading the markets. The market is
never personal in its judgment of trades…but it always judges. Traders and investors often take the
market’s judgments personally, always to their detriment.

Try to remember your emotions on trades and use the knowledge to your advantage. When you suffer a loss beyond your trading plan or have a significant gain, try to remember and
catalogue the emotions that accompanied your entering the trade. It’s important that you learn to
use your emotions as a trading indicator. Identify your emotions and how they relate to specific
trades that you have made….and understand the results of those trades.

Always prepare mentally and emotionally for what may be ahead on any trade. Understanding potential trade outcomes will enable you to prepare emotionally for the
real-time action. Many investors can accurately forecast a coming move, but their lack of
emotional and mental preparation does not allow them to take advantage of the move. They have
difficulty managing themselves during panic-filled sell-offs or euphoric rallies.


Take Responsibility

As with anything in life, you must take full responsibility for your trading and investing actions.
Blaming someone else or some service for your results is a tell that you are avoiding the truth.
In the end we’re each responsible for our own wealth management and financial success.

I often hear statements like “the game is fixed”, or “the plunge protection team killed my trade”,
or “they’re manipulating the market against me”. If you find yourself thinking or saying things like this, you haven’t yet accepted that the market owes you nothing. You must take
responsibility for your trades.

A Chinese proverb is instructive: He who blames others has a long way to go on his journey. He who
blames himself is halfway there. He who blames no one has arrived.



Learn to be disciplined with your trading and investing; there are no shortcuts to financial success. One must strive to remain focused at all times, to follow a plan, to practice trading,
and to continuously work to improve. Successful investing is a journey, not a destination.

Like a world class practitioner of any discipline, an investor must strive to constantly get better
at his craft. He needs to be continually working to raise his skill level and to broaden his
understanding of a variety of topics including economic theory, the real economy, market events,
trading systems, technical analysis and charting, and fundamental analysis. The goal is to be aware
of everything related to trading/investing, and to fully understand those that are related to your style and personal system.



Top 10 Trading & Investing Rules


The Financial Tap
Top 10 Trading & Investing Rules


1. Trade the Trend

“The trend is your friend” may be the most widely used truism in investing…and it’s directly
applicable to the study of Cycles. With Cycles, we attempt to identify significant Lows that mark
the start of new trends. If you always trade with the trend and never trade against it, you’ll
significantly increase your odds of trading success.

Trading a trend with Cycles is fairly straightforward in concept – if a longer term Cycle is moving
up, buy the troughs of a shorter Cycle; if a longer term Cycle is moving down; sell the tops of a
shorter Cycle.


2. Work for Optimal Trade Entries

Optimal trade entries are those that occur when the underlying asset is finding its Investor Cycle
Low. These lows occur 2-3 times per year, generally after frightening drops, and most often in
concert with major, trend-changing events. Trade entries at these lows typically have strong
risk/reward profiles.


3. Stop Losses

Each position must have a stop loss. Know when to cut your losses and never be afraid of
missing a rally. If the position is going against you, get out and regroup. Leaving a trade with a
small loss is easy, but allowing a small loss to balloon into a large one is inexcusable, and sets
the scene for a catastrophic loss in a portfolio. Too many investors stubbornly hold onto losing
positions rather than admit that price did not move as they thought it would.


4. Protect Capital First…Then Worry about Winning Trades

A natural extension of #3, protecting capital is the single most important step in wealth
management. All the winning trades and associated gains are worthless if you give them all back
through a few lousy portfolio-busting trades.

Avoiding losses is about letting go of the idea that each trade must be a winner. Once you
understand that you won’t, can’t and don’t need to win every trade – and that missing a rally is
just fine – you’ll be able to exit trades without regret while losses are still
small. And if you ensure that your losses are small, you can be successful with only
modest winning trades.


5. Position Sizing

Keep your positions in check relative to your overall portfolio size. Learn to fully
understand each trade, especially its setup and probability of success. Since no two trades are
alike, you should adjust your position size according to the risk/reward profile of each trade.
Also be sure to track your trading results – when you’re doing well you can be more aggressive and
when results have been mixed, you should trade more modestly.


6. Leverage and Options

Unless you’re a true expert, avoid significant leverage. The only times you should consider
leverage or options are at the beginning of new Secular or Investor Cycles. This is because the
odds of success are the greatest at these key Cycle Lows. Plus a nearby Cycle low offers a tight


7. Investing with a Plan

Trading without a plan is a proven losing strategy. Whether you follow the Market Cycles via The
Financial Tap or some other system, you must always have a plan in place which includes trade size,
conditions for entering a trade, and reasons for exiting a trade. Think
through them all in advance so that, no matter the market conditions, you’ll know how to respond.
Also make sure to ask yourself some key questions: “Why am I buying/selling here? Does this fit my
plan/strategy? Am I likely to question the trade (for non-plan compliance) in the future?”

Trades go against investors all the time, even when the trades were entered via a well- defined
strategy and according to a preset plan. Losing trades are normal – they are the price of trading.
Losses provide you with the opportunity to tweak your strategy and improve your plan.


8. Treat Investing Like a Business

In order to be successful, one must approach trading and investing as a business and not as a
hobby. Investing should be one of the most important aspects of your life, right after
spirituality, family, relationships, and personal healthcare. You’ve likely spent years working to
earn your wealth; you need to treat your wealth with the respect it deserves.
Understand what you’re investing in, why you’re investing, and what your expectations should be.
Never solely rely on an online service, advisor, index fund, or wealth manager. Take control of
your personal financial future, get educated, and understand
where every dollar of your wealth is invested.


9. Don’t Force a Trade – Wait For an Optimal Trade Setup

Even the most experienced investors have to fight the urge to trade unnecessarily. For a
variety of reasons, investors generally overtrade…and thereby greatly diminish their overall

It’s better to wait for an optimal trade setup – one that fits your trading plan; These trades have
much greater probability of success than trades taken impulsively. Over time, taking higher
probability trades will provide a much higher winning percentage and far greater portfolio returns.


10. Trade within Your Means

Trading is as much about avoiding significant losses as it is making gains. Significant losses are
difficult to overcome, and can directly affect your quality of life. There are NO shortcuts to
financial success and the freedom it affords. Success in the markets must be earned. Only trade
with money that you can comfortably lose. Never trade with borrowed money (credit cards/line of
equity/margin), have patience, and be realistic with your expectations.


About the Financial Tap

The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek
market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P,
Oil, and $USD Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to three different portfolios
and trade alerts. As these portfolios trade on varying timeframes (from days, weeks, to months),
there is a portfolio to suit all member preferences. If you’re interested in learning more about
The Financial Tap and the services offered, please visit


See the link here:

Rule #2 – Work for Optimal Trade Entries

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Rule #1 – Trade the Trend

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