Entries by Bob Loukas

Gold Cycle Update

May 28, 2015 /1 Comment/in /by

Recently within the article More Breathing Room I had outlined how gold had at least 3 weeks of upside surprise left within the current weekly Cycle. Unfortunately, gold did not manage to take advantage and has since shown signs of breaking down. And within the recent weekend premium report, I outlined a rather significant shift in my gold Cycle outlook based almost exclusively on the bearish COT report.

Those concerns materialized almost immediately once the trading week began, as gold dropped a solid $20 drop straight out of the gate. The other concerns were a dollar showing signs of a major Cycle Low, while gold itself is now up to week 10 of the Cycle, a point where every Cycle since 2011 has failed to exceed week 11 with new highs.

Market Update – May 28th

May 28, 2015 in /by

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Game Changer

May 24, 2015 in /by

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Midweek Market Update – May 20th

May 20, 2015 in /by

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Some Breathing Room

May 18, 2015 in /by

Longer term, remember that the March ICL held above the October ICL. With our newfound Cycle clarity, we no longer need to be concerned with the possibility of an early IC failure, so we can once again at least entertain the possibility that the bear market double bottomed in March. I believe that we’re about to see a Short covering rally from the speculators, one that will drive price up to the declining trend-line that marks the place where the last 5 bear market ICs topped. Beyond that, further upside will require that speculators turn bullish and begin buying Long positions again. If that unfolds, we should expect to see Gold cleanly break and exceed the trend-line, and eventually push into the $1,300 range, perhaps as high as $1,375. And if that happens, if Gold has a double bottom ICL followed by a higher IC top, it will be an exciting development for long-suffering bulls!

A Period of Speed

May 16, 2015 in /by

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Midweek Market Update – May 13th

May 13, 2015 in /by

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Turning Points

May 10, 2015 in /by

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Midweek Market Update – May 6th

May 6, 2015 in /by

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Yen Troubles to Continue

May 4, 2015 in /by

A look at the weekly Yen index (below) shows that it has not rallied despite the Dollar’s falling for 8 weeks into at least a deep Daily Cycle Low (DCL). There has been no demand to push the Yen higher while the Dollar has fallen, unlike the Euro, which has staged a counter-trend move.

In addition, the MACD has been rising since Jan 2015, but the Yen’s price has remained flat. Because the Yen did not respond (higher) as the Dollar fell and as traders increased (COT) Longs and covered Shorts, I can only assume that a new leg lower is approaching. One more thing to note: extremely tight Bollinger Bands tell me that a big move is imminent.