Last week, Crude put in one of the best single week rallies on record. Such a move was obviously not the result of bargain hunters or demand buying; it was driven purely by overly-leveraged speculators covering Short positions as the market turned higher. Once such moves get going, they often take longer than six sessions to resolve, so I expect that Crude will continue higher in the coming week as traders continue to cover their Shorts.
In summary, so far the declines have been of the ICL variety. But the fact that the market has entered into a correction with such high volatility and so early in the Investor Cycle points to a deeper market correction. But it won’t be a straight line lower, and with markets extended to the downside, we should have a period of stability (maybe 2 weeks higher) that should lead to a short-term top. Only then, after the bulls have begun to feel comfortable that the “buy the dip” narrative will hold true again, will the market be in a position to continue its decline.
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This content is for members only
This content is for members only
This content is for members only
We saw an amazing capitulation event in equities these past three sessions. It’s clear that market internals were weak, but no one could have foreseen the degree and rapidity of the selloff. The major US indices have already entered into official corrections (-10%), while many world markets are approaching bear market (-20%) territory. And it’s unlikely the declines are over. Friday’s drop was a massive distribution day, with 93% of volume trading lower. With a 1,433 point decline, that was the largest three day DOW decline on record.
The VIX spiked sharply, showing the sort of extreme panic/fear in the market that is typically reserved for the end of Investor and Yearly Cycle declines. If we use the the four-year rally in equities as our guide, this type of sell-off corresponds with markets completing a Cycle Low, after which they should turn higher and rally for 10-20 weeks in a new Cycle.
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If you followed recent posts, you would know I’ve been bullish on gold as it has turned higher within a new Investor Cycle. Being long here has been great and that three day pause last week, to form a bull flag, has resulted in a quick $47 move. So many people were expecting gold to break-down from that flag, which is partly why the rush to cover and/or buy-in was so aggressive. Some caution is needed now, I noticed a lot of the typical retail crowd on social media getting in at these levels and I noticed options premiums explode. Gold has become fairly overbought in the short-term and we’re also due a Daily Cycle Low soon enough.
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