Entries by Bob Loukas

A Period of Speed

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Midweek Market Update – May 13th

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Turning Points

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Midweek Market Update – May 6th

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Yen Troubles to Continue

A look at the weekly Yen index (below) shows that it has not rallied despite the Dollar’s falling for 8 weeks into at least a deep Daily Cycle Low (DCL). There has been no demand to push the Yen higher while the Dollar has fallen, unlike the Euro, which has staged a counter-trend move.

In addition, the MACD has been rising since Jan 2015, but the Yen’s price has remained flat. Because the Yen did not respond (higher) as the Dollar fell and as traders increased (COT) Longs and covered Shorts, I can only assume that a new leg lower is approaching. One more thing to note: extremely tight Bollinger Bands tell me that a big move is imminent.

Dollar Round Two

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Midweek Market Update – April 29th

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Back to our Regular Programming

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Midweek Market Update – April 22nd

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Crude Bull Market Hope

I believe that energy analysts are absolutely delusional to think Crude production will slow significantly, especially with Oil back near the $60 mark. During the recent, lengthy bull market, tens of billions of Dollars were invested in Crude infrastructure, so there is too much at stake to simply shut down operations and walk away. Investors and participants in any industry that has experienced a 15 year bull market won’t change their beliefs overnight – it takes time for sentiment to shift. Most are far too emotionally and financially vested in the industry, so it’s unreasonable to think that a 9 month decline is going to drive an immediate adjustment to the imbalance in supply and demand.

Granted, Oil will see some immediate production cuts, but these will be temporary in nature. They are not long term oil field closures, but rather decreases (or cessations) in the expansion of wells. Once we see some price recovery – as at present – companies will quickly react and start drilling again. Unfortunately, similar to the Gold bear market, I believe that this is the beginning of a long and arduous grind lower over a number of years.