Entries by Bob Loukas

Crude Oil Nearing Exhaustion

June 26, 2015 /1 Comment/in /by

For an asset like Crude, which is normally extremely volatile, the current prolonged sideways range is very much out of character. Crude has us accustomed to daily swings of 3% to 5%, and to shorter term rallies/declines that draw in traders before reversing suddenly. Crude is generally an asset that fluctuates in price, so the current “flat-line” action is rare. Since the last Daily Cycle peak on May 6th, Crude oil has been locked in a sideways trading range. Short term traders, expecting the usual crude oil volatility, are being chopped to pieces.

As a result, Crude’s Bollinger Bands are now the tightest they’ve been in over 2 years. And, as with every asset I track, tight Bollinger Bands are almost always a precursor to a significant move. I’m confident that Crude’s next move will be extremely sudden, and is likely to extend far outside the Bollinger Bands before coming to an end.

Midweek Market Update – June 24th

June 25, 2015 in /by

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Patience is Required

June 21, 2015 in /by

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Midweek Market Update – June 17th

June 17, 2015 in /by

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Approaching An Endpoint

June 15, 2015 in /by

A significant component of Cycle study focuses on identifying the type of Cycle an asset is following, and correlating that Cycle type’s typical performance to the asset. When a strong identification is possible, as with Gold today, the predictability of future performance is generally very high. So for the moment, we can only conclude that the bears remain in control, and that Gold is showing a setup only a bear could love. Based on these charts and longer term Cycle counts, we should prepare for a new down-leg. If another rally were to materialize, I’d expect it to be modest and to fizzle very quickly.

Mind that Gap

June 14, 2015 in /by

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Midweek Market Update – July 10th

June 11, 2015 in /by

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The Script Has Been Written

June 6, 2015 in /by

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Midweek Market Update – June 3rd

June 3, 2015 in /by

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You Don’t Know Where the Market is Heading!

June 2, 2015 in /by

I’ve been of two minds recently regarding the current Cycle picture in equities. So this week I focused more attention on finding secondary evidence to support a more definitive position on direction. As I suspected it might, my research provided an almost endless array of contradictory evidence and facts.

The internet and social media are a mixed blessing to researchers – they can lead to a huge number of hypotheses and points of view, but the quality of information is generally pretty low. At its best, however, the internet can lead to ideas and links to compelling analysis and primary sources. The point is that there exists online a mass of data points, ideas, opinions, analyses and thesis that can occasionally help to bring real clarity of thought, but more often, the information serves only to confuse, and even obfuscate. From a trader’s perspective, the information is generally unable to answer the questions that are of greatest import.