And this is where we find Bonds today. The Commitment of Traders report shows a massive Long speculative position, while overall Dollar sentiment remains sky-high. Weekly Cycle timing is well into its topping range, and the 4th Daily Cycle (shown below) is beginning to struggle. I would never count Bonds out, at least until we see a failed Daily Cycle, but I am starting to believe that a new down leg in Bonds is almost upon us.
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Crude has finally reversed higher to recover some of its recent losses, and is now showing clear evidence of a new Daily Cycle (DC) and Crude Oil Rally. There are early signs of a new Investor Cycle (IC) as well.
Midweek, Crude bottomed on day 44 before reversing sharply higher and punching through the declining trend-line. And when it closed above the 10 day moving average, Crude confirmed that it is in the early stages of a new Daily Cycle. From this point forward, Crude’s performance will depend on its Investor Cycle and the bear market as a whole.
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When we widen the timeframe out to the weekly Cycle, we see an entirely different picture. A clear bear market trend has decisively broken as a second straight Investor Cycle high has been made. The trend has reversed, and the early performance of the precious metals miners tells us that a new bull market is already well under way.
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