Excessive Crude Speculation
Too many people appear to be focused on the inverse head and shoulders bottom that has developed in Crude. While H&S patterns have their place, the problem with the current pattern is that for it develop and complete, Crude needs to be in a new cyclical bull market. I’m OK with a partial breakout – a solid punch above the below trend line – that acts as a bull trap, but that’s all that will make sense at this point. Crude Oil is structurally not ready to resume a bull market, and the macro-economic landscape simply does not align well with one. I believe that we’re seeing a bear market, counter-trend rally that is near exhaustion.