I like this Crude oil decline, and to date, it has been a picture perfect Cycle’s development. Members of The Financial Tap were already tracking that expectation in advance, and positioned well to take advantage. But that big decline, which started on March 7th took many by surprise, judging by the extreme (Long) positioning seen with the COT report. And if you were not already short before the move began, the speed of the decline made it nearly impossible to establish a new position thereafter.

I believe that might not be the case anymore and another opportunity is at hand. We’ve seen a clear Cycle Low (March 14th) in my opinion, and that was confirmed with the rally after the FOMC last week. I know it was only a three day rally, but the move back to the 10-day moving average is possibly all that we’re going to see, from a counter-trend perspective.