The FED Keeps the Party Going

Yesterday’s GDP release of a 1.7% gain underscored just how lethargic the economic recovery remains.  Now 4.5 years since the last recession, the fear for the FED is that the business Cycle is in the process of turning over.  Forget the rhetoric that the economy is going to gain steam and start growing quicker; we’ve been hearing this same nonsense since 2010.  The fact remains that the FED is keeping the economy artificially elevated and the best they can do is keep it right above stall speed. 

So when we hear talk of tapering asset purchases, I really do not see how they could do this.  The last time that thought gained any traction bonds sold off very quickly and this forced borrowing costs to spike.  I seriously doubt the FED is going to allow the stock market to tank and interest rates to spike right when the economy looks the most vulnerable.   

The FED’s message in the end was that as long as the economy remains near stall speed then asset purchases at $85 per month will continue.  They say if the economy improves enough then they will begin tapering purchases, but I still see that as being years from reality.  To me the new black swan event is the need for even larger asset purchases.  The thought of a new round of QE is never discussed, but I believe there is a greater chance we see more QE before we see any tapering. 

Yes it was an ugly late day sell-off yestersday, but in my opinion the FOMC was a bullish announcement and the Daily Cycle still has plenty of time before the next DCL.  Consolidation below 1,700 continues and this is understandable as the run towards 1,700 from the last Cycle Low was pretty extreme.  However it should not take long to break out of this zone, and once 1,700 is broken the runaway will enter its final parabolic phase.

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