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Midweek Market Update – FED Speak – Aug 20th

My “bounce-back” call to the 1,970 level has been fulfilled and within my expected aggressive timeframe. No doubt, this has been a bullish bounce back and it looks a lot like the start of yet another Investor Cycle. But it also has a “desperate” feel to it, so a turn lower from here remains a possibility and within the yearly Cycle Low scenario. Either way, in the short term, I expect a drop here in both cases, how it responds from there will show the path forward. Continue reading

Hanging On

Is the world economy finally showing signs of economic weakness? That’s my takeaway from a number of reports this week. Here in the US, the reliable retail sales number was flat, meaning no growth in sales. And this weakness was confirmed by sales numbers from Walmart. On the manufacturing end, the NY index fell to 14.7, well below the 20 reading that was expected. Continue reading

Midweek Market Update – Aug 13th

What we have here is a bear consolidation period after a decline and before the next (and likely final) leg into a DCL and ICL. Based on my expectation for a short DCL (because the last went 55 days), we could see the next ICL occur within 7 sessions or sometime next week. Continue reading

Signs of Change

There’s a lot of buzz in the financial press about the Dollar’s new-found strength, including conjecture that it’s headed for parity with the Euro. While that may be true in the longer term, before that can happen the Euro will likely need a counter-trend bounce. The Euro has been sold for 14 straight weeks, beginning with the ECB announcement of both a rate cut and a willingness to offer further monetary accommodation, and pressure from the extended move needs to be released. Every move has its swings and this one appears close to completion – the Euro is deeply into the timing band for an ICL, and is significantly oversold technically. Continue reading

Midweek Market Update – Aug 6th

But top calling has burned far too many analysts this past 20 months, so you won’t find me trying to trade this Cycle lower (short). I just have far too much respect for this bull market which has turned into a runaway/parabolic advance. Although I’m now fairly bearish on equities, I need to see the Yearly Cycle decline play out as prescribed, only to re-enter on the long side, once the market rallies out of extremely oversold daily and weekly positions. Continue reading

Cracks Appear

A sharp decline fits with our expectations. The most recent midweek report noted that “I’m confident that the S&P has already topped for this Daily Cycle “ and “we should expect a move lower first, a fast drop over the next 4-7 sessions to mark the next DCL.”Even so, I did not expect a decline of such magnitude, or for the Daily Cycle to fail, as it did once it dropped below 1,925.

The landscape has now changed; the Investor Cycle is in decline. The implications are broad – we may not see new highs in the current Investor Cycle and, quite possibly, for the remainder of 2014. Also, the S&P has broken the weekly trend-line, indicating that the IC has topped and a multi-week process of finding the next Investor Cycle Low has begun. Continue reading

Midweek Market Update – July 30th

On the positive end, the relative strength shown by the precious metals miners is indicating that we’re more likely in a consolidation period, rather than the start of a major new downtrend. But to be sure, we must watch the $1,287 line, because that marks what should be the last DCL. A breach below this point, especially on a Daily closing basis, would be a likely turn for the worse. But remember, day to day action can be volatile and Cycle Lows can be breached (only to reverse) during erratic intra-day reactions.

Continue reading

Weekend Report – July 26th/27th

As for the current setup, there comes a point where an asset just reaches its limit, and it is where I believe crude stands today. Right now, a Cycle Low is well past due and technically it is just so far oversold that I would (even by crude’s extreme standards) be surprised if a Cycle Low didn’t come on Monday. But then again, the caveat remains, crude marches to its own beat and is also in free-fall.

7-13 crude daily Continue reading

Weekend Report – July 19th/20th

As for the current setup, there comes a point where an asset just reaches its limit, and it is where I believe crude stands today. Right now, a Cycle Low is well past due and technically it is just so far oversold that I would (even by crude’s extreme standards) be surprised if a Cycle Low didn’t come on Monday. But then again, the caveat remains, crude marches to its own beat and is also in free-fall.

7-13 crude daily Continue reading

Weekend Report – July 13th/14th

As for the current setup, there comes a point where an asset just reaches its limit, and it is where I believe crude stands today. Right now, a Cycle Low is well past due and technically it is just so far oversold that I would (even by crude’s extreme standards) be surprised if a Cycle Low didn’t come on Monday. But then again, the caveat remains, crude marches to its own beat and is also in free-fall.

7-13 crude daily Continue reading

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