Cycles Update- Feb 23rd
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Bob Loukas is the founder of The Financial Tap. With over 20 years of experience in market analysis and trading, Bob is a life-long student of economics and has an abiding passion for the financial markets.
He is a leading expert in Market Cycles. His love of Cycles emerged from the study of the work of Walter Bressert, a pioneer in the field.
Originally from Sydney, Australia, Bob has been settled in New York City for the past 16 years. His background is in Computer Sciences, with extensive experience in the Financial Software arena. Prior to launching The Financial Tap, Bob served as a senior executive at various Fortune 50 firms where he led development of financial trading and reporting software.
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One aspect of this market that I like a lot is the Gold to Silver ratio, which appears to have topped with the massive 2016 gold bottom. Gold bear markets always hit silver hard, while bull markets always see Silver outperform gold. On the chart below, the Yearly Cycle Lows in gold are should with the red arrows as rising peaks in the ratio. Meaning that as gold sold off through the bear market decline, Silver was hammered further and the ratio went higher.
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I am rather surprised to read across the blogosphere how a majority of traders appear to discount and undermine the current gold market. I can appreciate that the longer term cyclical outlook remains unresolved, but in the short-term at least, I believe the gold sector looks to be in great shape.
My view comes with the hindsight of the Cycle count. From what I can see, we recently completely a clear 1st Daily Cycle Low and have already moved higher to new IC highs. Historically, with the second Daily Cycle just getting going, we are now in the most bullish portion of a 26 week Cycle. That means the performance over the next 3-4 week normally shows the best return of the entire Investor Cycle period.
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