Midweek Market Update – May 20th

  • Posted by Bob Loukas
  • On May 20, 2015
  • Bonds, Crude, Cycles, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Natural Gas, S&P, Silver
Crude is beginning to follow a more predictable Cycles script as clarity begins to return. We can now safely say that the crash of 2014/15 is over and that the bullish advance here is the handy work of not only a new Investor Cycle, but also that of a new Yearly Cycle. This means there is room for crude to move higher still. Even when under the influence of a bear market, a new Yearly Cycle is always capable of producing impressive counter-trending moves.
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Midweek Market Update – May 13th

  • Posted by Bob Loukas
  • On May 13, 2015
  • Bonds, Crude, Cycles, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Natural Gas, S&P, Silver
Today’s surge across the entire precious metals sector was more in line with the bullish tape I’ve been reading of late. Sure, the dollar was down today, but it has been down for over a month, without any effect on the metals. Today was different, there was a surge on strong buying volume in the gold sector, while at the same time, I noticed that most of the other dollar denominated assets were trading flat or lower on the day.
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Midweek Market Update – May 6th

  • Posted by Bob Loukas
  • On May 6, 2015
  • Bonds, Crude, Cycles, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Natural Gas, S&P, Silver
I’ve been impressed with how well crude has held up (and advanced), while most asset classes have sold off. During some sessions this past week, I noticed that everything was down except for crude, showing us that traders have been buying crude regardless of any correlation or outside market forces. But I also know that bear market rallies, especially ones so soon after a collapse, are the most powerful and deceiving of all kind. And as I maintain that crude has entered into a structural bear market, what we’re seeing here is a speculative rush to re-live the bull market days that will quickly sour on speculators.
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Midweek Market Update – April 29th

  • Posted by Bob Loukas
  • On April 29, 2015
  • Bonds, Crude, Cycles, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Natural Gas, S&P, Silver
All I know, and with a higher degree of confidence, is that the evidence to support a new Daily Cycle is there. Looking at the Silver too, it shows that relative strength is there. And a deeper look into the precious metals miners, especially some of the juniors, shows that there is a significant amount of accumulation that is occurring. We’ve seen this type action before, no doubt, but it at least tells me that an Investor Cycle Low likely occurred recently and that an unpopular move higher from is already in motion.
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Midweek Market Update – April 22nd

  • Posted by Bob Loukas
  • On April 22, 2015
  • Bonds, Crude, Cycles, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Natural Gas, S&P, Silver
So then is it bearish that bonds broke in the other direction? The answer I believe is no, this is not so unusual. This is not a time to be panicking on positions because the worst case scenario in any trade is that our disciplined risk management will get us out before any potential trouble could unfold. And because the Daily Cycle count is clearly late and ready for a 1st DCL, I can only expect that what we're seeing is a move that will be faded quickly (maybe tomorrow or Friday) and a new Cycle higher will begin. Of course, I don’t have a crystal ball, but let me add that even with today’s big bond decline, I still find this Cycle setup to be bullish.
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Midweek Market Update – April 15th

  • Posted by Bob Loukas
  • On April 15, 2015
  • Bonds, Crude, Cycles, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Natural Gas, S&P, Silver
Crude oil broke out today by exceeding the high set during the last Daily Cycle. This makes it fresh, 4 month highs, and also likely to end up marking this Daily Cycle as the first Right Translated Cycle in over a year! This move more that confirms that the last Yearly Cycle ended back in early January and there is now the potential for crude to move somewhat higher over the next month. Now that crude is showing some relative strength, my upper target, which has always remained the $60 level for this Investor Cycle, is now potentially within reach from within this Daily Cycle. The bulls have ‘the floor’ and we could see a surge over the next 5 to 10 days, to test or exceed that $60 level. This would definitely set the scene for a top of this Daily Cycle, at least, but also possibly for this Investor Cycle too.
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Midweek Market Update – April 8th

  • Posted by Bob Loukas
  • On April 8, 2015
  • Bonds, Crude, Cycles, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Natural Gas, S&P, Silver
That broadening can be seen within the equity market Cycles, especially as the character of the Cycle patterns appear to have changed when compared to the past 3 years. Although we still see 3 consecutive Daily Cycle tops that were higher than the previous Cycle, the last 2 peaks were only marginally higher, while the Cycle Lows both came close to failing. This feels like a topping pattern to me and as equities entered the 4th DC, the danger is that this Investor Cycle is now ready to turn lower. Bulls need a strong push to new all-times.
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Midweek Market Update – April 1st

  • Posted by Bob Loukas
  • On April 1, 2015
  • Bonds, Crude, Cycles, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Natural Gas, S&P, Silver
We're seeing fairly significant day to day volatility now and it's whipping short term traders out of positions. It's a difficult environment to be trading, but for the Daily Cycle, it is still range bound and has yet to show us definitively in which direction the market wishes to move towards. For now, 2,044 is the lower line to be cautious on, while the bulls want to see a big push to all-time highs soon.
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